The UN annual climate summit is now underway in Azerbaijan's capital Baku, where thousands of world leaders, including representatives of governments around the world are converging for two weeks of negotiations over how to tackle the global climate crisis.
Also known as COP29, the world leaders' "what-do-we-do-about-the-environment" conference started on Monday, November 11, and has accomplished a longtime goal -- teeing up a global market for carbon-credit trading.
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On the first day, negotiators at COP29 agreed on standards for the sale of carbon credits between countries after years of gridlock.
Analysts argue that carbon credits let wealthier nations like the US, China, and Japan meet climate targets by "buying" smaller countries' emission reductions without necessarily reducing their domestic emissions.
However, the global climate summit has been overshadowed by uncertainties, particularly by climate activists and analysts who question the progress of previous pledges and commitments.
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COP29 needs to deliver
The ongoing summit, according to Abbias Maniragaba, a professor in environmental studies and climate researcher based in Kigali, presents a vital opportunity for countries to agree on a new climate finance target.
"But negotiators should also push for the need to complete the remaining guidance needed to fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, hence setting the stage for future ambitious climate action," he said.
Maniragaba argues that discussions should be moving from incremental progress to the necessary transformative levels of climate action.
"The Paris Agreement is working, but not fast enough. If COP29 succeeds, it will close a chapter in the UNFCCC negotiations and free COP30 to reframe how the "Paris Agreement can best ensure a future that is as climate-safe and prosperous as possible."
Success at COP29, he maintained, would also give people around the world hope that countries are still able to overcome common challenges in a demanding geopolitical context.
"Failure at COP29 could deal a significant blow to the multilateral process for addressing climate change," he said.
All-country initiative
According to Maniragaba, a future that is climate-safe involves efforts from both developed and developing countries.
However, he said, "African leaders can build a united front to raise issues like climate security and climate financing at COP29."
Concorde Kubwimana, a climate activist based in Kigali echoed similar sentiments, citing that African leaders should shift from a dependence mindset to an independent role towards climate action.
"Time is now for developing countries to come together and put measures in place that protect the continent's environment," he added, "The negotiations at COP 29 should be region-focused especially given that most African countries bear the brunt of the consequences mainly from the developed world."
According to Kubwimana, Africa should stand to protect its environment regardless of who is in support. "We want our (African) leaders to have a similar agenda in combatting the effects of climate change."
Equally important, he asserted, leaders are expected to finalize outstanding guidance to fully operationalize Article 6 of the Paris Agreement relating to carbon markets, which is also the final part of the Paris Agreement's 'rule book' that remains open.
"The outstanding issues are highly technical, but the increasing political will, as well as individual progress from countries in recent months, offer hope that COP29 could succeed."
Quality, not just quantity matters
For Faustin Vuningoma, another climate activist based in Kigali, the negotiations around a new global climate finance commitment is a "low-hanging fruit", particularly based on the effects of climate change in the recent past.
"COP 29 has been dubbed as finance COP, which means that we should push for ambitious new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) targets that will help to finance adaptation as well as loss and damage needs for developing countries," he added.
Vuningoma who heads a network of 63 environmental and climate change organizations in Rwanda said he looked forward to "how the NCQG and the global goal on adaptation will be negotiated."
Michael Jarvis, the Executive Director of the Trust, Accountability, and Inclusion (TAI) Collaborative, agreed with Vuningoma, calling on leaders to focus not just on the amount of climate finance, but also on its quality, citing that the latter is an essential element he believes is overlooked.
"Quality climate finance goes beyond donor expectations, emphasizing transparency, public participation, and accountability. It's about empowering citizens to influence how funds are allocated, as communities on the ground are often best positioned to understand their own needs," he said.
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Yet, he added, these voices are frequently absent from high-level discussions like those in Baku, pointing out that while the new funding targets rely heavily on government commitments, philanthropic contributions will be vital.
Trump's effect on the summit agenda?
According to analysts, Donald Trump's recent election as U.S. President will not directly alter this year's summit agenda, but it could affect the implementation of any agreements when he is inaugurated in January 2025.
Trump pulled the US from the Paris Agreement, fulfilling his promise to withdraw from the global pact. His successor, President Joe Biden, signed the US back into the agreement in 2021.
As the world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases only after China, a US withdrawal from the pact would have huge consequences for any targets agreed upon at COP29.
Last year alone, the US produced an average of 12.9 million barrels of crude oil per day, breaking a previous global record in 2019.
While Trump has regularly questioned climate change and its effects, Kubwimana believes that the former is likely to "change based on the obvious and unbearable effects of climate change in the last four years."
