Since April 2023, eastern Chad has received more than 930,000 people fleeing the war in neighbouring Sudan, creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The Chadian government and its partners should mobilise emergency economic support for the region to help prevent communal violence.
What's new? Since April 2023, more than 930,000 people have fled the war in Sudan into neighbouring eastern Chad. As the Sudanese conflict intensifies, this number is likely to rise, straining an aid response that is already insufficient to meet the needs of the refugees and the Chadians among whom they live.
Why does it matter? Eastern Chad, particularly Ouaddaï, where most of the refugees are concentrated, was already beset with extreme poverty and ethnic tension between Arabs and non-Arabs. The sudden population increase could destabilise the region, particularly if Sudanese communal divisions emerge among the refugees.
What should be done? While waiting for donors to honour their promises, humanitarian agencies should focus their efforts on the critical sources of friction between refugees and Chadians. The Chadian government should mobilise economic support for Ouaddaï and work to prevent the rise of anti-Arab sentiment.
I. Summary
More than 930,000 people fleeing the war ravaging Sudan have sought refuge in eastern Chad since April 2023. The majority have settled in Ouaddaï province, which was already suffering from high levels of poverty, a shortage of basic services and communal tensions, particularly between Arabs and non-Arabs. The refugees' arrival - which has more than doubled the province's population - has exacerbated these problems and, thus far, humanitarian aid has been inadequate to ameliorate them. Brawls among aid beneficiaries are commonplace, as are conflicts between refugees and locals over access to resources, which are taking on a dangerous ethnic dimension. As the Sudanese conflict intensifies, even more refugees are likely to come to Chad in the coming months. To prevent further communal strife, the Chadian government, with the support of its international partners, should work to reduce frictions through emergency economic support and awareness-raising initiatives.
War broke out in Sudan in April 2023, driving almost 20 per cent of the country's 50 million inhabitants from their homes. More than eight million people have been displaced within Sudan, while three million have fled abroad, mainly to Egypt, Chad and South Sudan. The Sudanese who have found refuge in eastern Chad come mainly from the states of West Darfur, whose capital, al-Geneina, was the scene of atrocities against non-Arab communities in 2023, and North Darfur. Many Chadians who had been living in Darfur, for family or economic reasons, have also been forced to return home.
The authorities in N'Djamena allowed humanitarian aid to be deployed rapidly, and moved to secure the frontier, in order to prevent weapons from entering Chadian territory along with the refugees. The province of Ouaddaï, bordering Darfur, has become the epicentre of the refugee crisis: a semi-arid region of around one million inhabitants, where living conditions were already precarious before the war, it is now home to more than 70 per cent of the Sudanese who have arrived in Chad. Despite logistical and security constraints, UN agencies and international NGOs quickly set up emergency assistance near the border.
But this aid is not enough to meet the needs of the new arrivals, most of whom are housed in camps. Food prices have risen sharply, mainly because no imports are coming in from Sudan, and competition for jobs and housing is sharpening. Unemployed and with few prospects of changing that condition, hundreds of young Chadians are joining armed groups in Sudan to make money. Many refugees, for their part, are bringing their own grievances to Chad, particularly against Arabs, whom they blame for the massacres that led to their exodus from Sudan. These resentments overlap, reinforcing the communal divisions in the region, which previously experienced a major refugee crisis during the war in Darfur in the 2000s.
People wait for food to be distributed at the Adré provisional reception site. Fleeing the war ravaging neighbouring Sudan, more than 930,000 people have taken refuge in eastern Chad since April 2023. March 2024. Ouaddaï, Chad. CRISIS GROUP/Charles Bouessel.
Several factors threaten to heighten the severity of violence in Ouaddaï. As the fighting in Darfur gets worse, the number of people seeking refuge in Chad is likely to keep climbing, which could further exacerbate tensions with locals over shares of humanitarian aid and economic opportunities. This situation, in turn, could lead to more attacks on refugees, whom some Chadians accuse of driving up prices and monopolising essentials, particularly water and firewood.
A major challenge in this crisis is to protect women and children from gender-based violence. Women and children make up the majority of new arrivals, and are often tasked with finding food, water and firewood outside the camps, where they are exposed to such attacks. Should the socio-economic situation deteriorate further, more young Chadian men could enlist in armed groups party to the Sudanese conflict, further deepening communal divisions.
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As outside interference in the Sudanese war is increasing and a negotiated settlement seems unlikely any time soon, the Chadian authorities, with the support of international partners, should take urgent steps to limit the tensions in Ouaddaï. Donors should honour their pledges to bolster the humanitarian response, which the UN considers underfunded. With more funds, NGOs and UN agencies could target the main areas of tension, in particular access to water and firewood.
The Chadian government, for its part, should provide direct economic support to alleviate the suffering in Ouaddaï, while planning, in the medium term, to build more and better roads and water supply systems. The authorities should also work to reduce anti-Arab sentiment, which has been greatly exacerbated by the war in Sudan. Strong messages of solidarity and social cohesion from N'Djamena, including during visits to the region by President Mahamat Déby Itno, would be particularly useful in this endeavour. The government should coordinate its messaging with the reconciliation work on the ground by joint committees made up of local authorities, traditional chiefs and newcomers' representatives. Finally, by taking advantage of family and communal ties, the Chadian authorities could assume a local mediation role in the conflict in Darfur.
N'Djamena/Paris/Brussels, 14 November 2024
