Swapo's presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, has taken the lead in the national elections after securing 60% of preliminary votes in the National Assembly special election exercise on Wednesday.
This was followed by Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) at 27% and Affirmative Repositioning (AR) with 6%.
Commentators, however, warn that the real test will be on 27 November.
Vice president Nandi-Ndaitwah, a former international relations minister who oversaw diplomatic offices abroad, won the majority of votes abroad, but lost to the IPC's Panduleni Itula in cities such as London and Cape Town.
Around 16 352 Namibians in the security cluster, Namibian seafarers and those abroad voted in the special elections.
Swapo deputy secretary general Uaherukua Herunga yesterday said the odds were in the party's favour.
"That people are saying we only got the votes because of the diplomats is just a trend is not the case. They are just trying to stick their heads in the sand. The majority of voters abroad are actually students," he said.
Swapo information secretary Hilma Nicanor said the ruling party is seeing a victory for Swapo.
"We want the Namibian nation to continue voting for us so we can continue delivering our service and continue to mobilise the Namibian people," she said.
Swapo dominated the northern part of the country, while the IPC appears to maintain its lead in the Erongo region.
In London (United Kingdom), Nandi-Ndaitwah garnered 38 votes, Itula 52, the Affirmative Repositioning's Job Amupanda 20, and Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) president McHenry Venaani tallied six votes.
Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah says the support shown for the IPC and the AR signals a shift.
"Swapo still leads, but the closeness of the margins suggests that more voters are willing to consider alternatives, indicating growing competition and perhaps dissatisfaction with traditional politics," he says.
Kamwanyah says the AR's third-place finish shows that it is gaining support, particularly among younger and urban voters who may be drawn to its direct approach on social issues and housing.
"Their ability to secure a significant share of the vote, despite being a new party, suggests they're effectively connecting with people who want change," he says.
AR OUTSHINES PDM
AR chief Amupanda yesterday said he was excited about the party's performance so far.
"This will serve as reinforcement to our energy and effort to fight even harder. We have been written off by the media and analysts, and I think that's a mistake," he said.
Amupanda, however, said it's too early to foresee what's ahead since only a small portion of Namibians voted on Wednesday.
"The young people and the unemployed are yet to cast their votes. The people who voted are ambassadors and people who are commanded by the 'general' - most of them were afraid," he said.
Another AR leader, George Kambala, said the party is excited about the response of Namibians across the globe.
"For now we are very excited and are overwhelmed with the response of voters abroad and locally," he said.
"We know it's still far from over, but this is very encouraging and we want our members to take this as motivation to go and vote," he said.
Kambala said he is aware of the challenges faced during the voting process.
"We know there have been challenges with the voting process, but this must motivate them to go ahead and vote on 27 November," he said.
Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) leader McHenry Venaani yesterday said the current results are not what the party expected.
"We have done okay, but it's not exactly where we want to be," he said.
Political observer Kae Matundu-Tjiparuro says the special elections' results are not surprising.
"In fact, the pattern is not something unfamiliar. If one is to read the results meticulously they are quite revealing," he says.
"Staff from our various missions are posted there, meaning they are inclined to return favours for having been posted by none other than the Swapo party government," he says.
Matundu-Tjiparuro says other diaspora voters are students, most of whom may have been favoured by their "interconnectedness".
"While again if one looks at the scenario in South Africa, one sees the AR amassing quite a number of votes, which could be explained by the fact that maybe those in South Africa are there through their own means with no favour to return to anyone. They may be voting according to their own conscience," he says.
PDM lawmaker Inna Hengari yesterday said her party condemned the Electoral Commission of Namibia's inability to create polling stations in the diaspora - especially stations closer to communities where more Namibians live.
"We had voters who had to travel by train for five hours to get to a polling station just to cast a vote. I do not think it is acceptable in 2024 to have an electoral body that does not prepare efficiently and in a manner that protects and allows citizens to not only cast their votes, but to also have a sense of security that their vote will count," she said.
Hengari said it's unacceptable that polling stations ran out of ballot papers.
"The ECN should be prepared. We will not accept any excuses from here on out. Namibians will come out in big numbers to cast their votes, and the ECN should not have an excuse," she said.
Joyce Muzengua, the head of the Landless People's Movement's human rights desk, said she was concerned that there were shortages of ballot papers at some stations.
"If we were in the first world, the ECN could have been taken to court now.
"When you produce the number of ballots, you need to ensure that it matches the exact number of registered voters," she said.
"I don't understand how certain numbers, certain ballot papers disappeared at polling stations. It just does not make sense at all. I hope the ECN prepares itself adequately," she said.
LPM spokesperson Lifalaza Simataa said the party is concerned about the ECN's handling of special voting.
"There were logistical issues when it came to how the ECN facilitated the process. Two venues in Windhoek were not sufficient for the number of voters that had arrived, and it became unruly, and tear gas had to be applied.
"It is especially concerning, because these are our security cluster people - the Namibian Defence Force and the Namibian Police - and a situation like that from these two institutions makes us a bit concerned," he said.
He said the ECN may not be prepared for the upcoming elections.
"We are concerned about whether the ECN will be ready for the upcoming elections on the 27th, specifically because one of the polling stations ran out of ballot papers.
"There was another instance where a polling station had to move from inside the building to outside during the voting process, and we find it very concerning," he said.
Simataa said there is a lack of communication regarding the election results.
"I think in terms of informing the masses it is quite important, and it is a gap we noticed the ECN does not put on their social media or website for the results turnout.
"It is concerning that we have to see it on social media from people who took pictures of it, and we are concerned about it. If these things are mitigated, and if we have enough polling stations, and if they can rectify the ballot paper process, I think things will go smoothly," he said.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF) deputy leader Kalimbo Iipumbu yesterday said the special election was marked by chaos.
"What we see is chaos from different polling stations, and we have requested the ECN to stop these elections. There were a lot of people who were unable to vote because the polling stations were not operating, and people did not have enough time to vote, given it is their democratic right," he said.
Iipumbu said the election may be challenged in court.
"It is a pity that we are in a country where when things are wrong we do not want to sit down and rectify them. These elections will not go unchallenged, because come 27 November, it will be chaotic if we can't handle smaller numbers.
"We have a huge number of people, and everybody will want to cast their votes. The ECN needs to do something urgently if they want to make sure these elections go unchallenged.
"The elections are a bit dubious because of the process itself. You wonder why it is slow when the ECN knew about the increase in people this year, and why they did not make some changes.
"If they are not prepared, it's going to be a mess. It is not just about the elections; it is about the integrity and prosperity of the country. Whatever mess we are going to find ourselves in after this election will be because of the commission's handling of the elections," he said.
Speculation
Political analyst Hennining Melber says the early results have triggered speculation.
". . . as insignificant as they numerically are, they can also influence voting behaviour," he says.
"They [the results] should remain undisclosed."
