The fierce electoral competition in Somaliland - coupled with clan politics and governance challenges - makes it important to understand the implications of the de facto independent state's recent presidential election outcome.
The opposition coalition Waddani won the November election over the ruling party, Kulmiye. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (also known as Cirro/Irro) secured a five-year mandate.
This election represents a pivotal moment for Somaliland, the Horn of Africa and international politics. Waddani's victory shows Somaliland's democratic resilience and potential for inclusive governance.
The election was held after a two-year delay brought on by financial and technical challenges, according to outgoing president Muse Bihi. Waddani has promised to include political voices from marginalised regions. Bihi's administration had been accused of sidelining some clans.
Somaliland has been de facto independent from Somalia for 33 years, but remains unrecognised internationally. It occupies an 800km coastline on the Gulf of Aden. It has become a beacon of relative peace in the Horn of Africa, a region battling political instability, piracy and transnational conflicts. The region includes Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia.
I have researched Somaliland's politics for over 10 years. Ahead of the November election, I held interviews with Abdihakim Saeed, a founding member of Waddani. I also spoke in person with Saeed and Mohammad Abdullahi Omar, a former foreign minister and high-ranking leader in Waddani, in the Somaliland capital of Hargeisa. These interviews covered what a Waddani victory would mean for Somaliland, its independence from Somalia, and peace and security in the Horn of Africa.
From these conversations, and my research into Somaliland's challenges, it's clear that Waddani has three major priorities:
- equitable governance across Somaliland's six regions to address clan-based tensions
- international recognition for Somaliland's independence from Somalia
- upholding Somaliland's reputation for peaceful democratic transitions of power from one party to the other and solving domestic problems on its own without outside help for over 30 years - a marked contrast to its neighbour, Somalia.
Waddani's victory could herald a new era for Somaliland as a stable, independent and democratic state in a volatile region.
Equitable governance
The election was Somaliland's fourth successful one-person, one-vote presidential election. Despite a shaky few years, the poll demonstrates a commitment to democracy, rule of law and peaceful power transitions.
Waddani's victory signifies a strong public endorsement for change - 64% of Somalilanders voted for the opposition party. This ended 14 years of rule under the Kulmiye party.
In the lead-up to the election, Waddani said it would prioritise equitable governance. This would move away from what many Somalilanders saw as Kulmiye's approach of centralising power and growth in the capital city. Kulmiye was also perceived as favouring the Isaaq majority clan, which outgoing president Bihi belonged to. In shifting the approach, Waddani hopes to ease clan-based tensions.
Read more: Somaliland crisis: delayed elections and armed conflict threaten dream of statehood
These efforts, if successful, would foster the political integration of clans in Somaliland. They would also help direct economic and social support to regions far from the capital and the major trade corridor centred around the Berbera port.
Independence quest
Waddani will remain committed - like the majority of Somalilanders - to gaining international recognition as an independent state. Somaliland joined the Somali Republic in 1960 but departed in 1991.
In doing this, Waddani will build on the Kulmiye party's achievements. These include diplomatic representation in some western countries. In 2022, Bihi made an unofficial visit to Washington, DC, and a UK parliamentary delegation visited Hargeisa.
Waddani party leaders, however, intend to shift away from Kulmiye's complete reliance on the west. They hope to get independence recognition faster from African and global south states.
The pace of recognition from the US and UK has been slow. And the west condemned Somaliland's deal with Ethiopia. This deal gives Ethiopia access to a strip of Somaliland's coastline in return for acknowledgement of Somaliland's independence.
But Waddani must carefully navigate that deal, signed by the previous administration. The leaders I spoke to said:
We don't know the details of the MOU (memorandum of understanding). How can we implement it before we evaluate it in light of the interests of our country and its people?
Washington's rejection of the agreement surprised Bihi and his administration. Disappointment with the US for its on-again, off-again approach to Somaliland's independence was palpable. However, the election of Donald Trump as US president has rekindled reports of potential US cooperation with Somaliland that may lead to recognition.
Waddani officials implied that if Somaliland continues to be ignored by the US on account of Washington's "one Somalia" policy, Hargeisa may have to engage with other actors.
Beacon of democracy
Waddani's victory comes at a critical time for the Horn of Africa. Tensions between Ethiopia, Somalia and Egypt over the use of Nile waters and the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal are rising.
However, Somaliland's stable and democratic governance contrasts sharply with Somalia's instability and the authoritarian regimes throughout the rest of the Horn. This is a chance to appear as a beacon of democracy in a sea of autocracies in the region.
Somaliland could come to be seen as a potential regional stabiliser.
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Somaliland's case will be strengthened if Waddani's time in power brings greater economic and political inclusion with the marginalised eastern regions.
However, internal divisions could hinder the coalition's ability to carry out reforms. Security challenges, particularly in the eastern regions, are likely to demand immediate attention.
Economic revitalisation is another pressing concern. Youth unemployment stands at 70% and skilled Somalilanders are being lost to other nations via a brain drain.
Waddani's governance model will be tested by tensions like the deteriorating relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia and Somaliland-Somalia dynamics.
What next
Waddani has the potential to transform Somaliland's domestic scene and burnish its international standing. It will have to put inclusivity first within Somaliland, and address economic and security challenges. The new leadership will also need to broaden Hargeisa's diplomatic outreach, while courting the US.
Success will depend on the party's ability to navigate the complex political dynamics and rifts in Somaliland's society, and the Horn of Africa.
Brendon J. Cannon, Associate Professor, Khalifa University
