Mozambique: A Tipping Point Has Been Passed

This week attacks have increased on police posts and Frelimo buildings. The police response has become more aggressive, with more than 85 people killed in the past month. An armoured car drove directly at protesters on Wednesday, and, for the first time, five embassies objected.

Frelimo has pushed hard to marginalise Venâncio Mondlane, by trying to keep him off the ballot paper and now by making sure he must remain outside Mozambique. But it has also marginalised his attempts to promote peaceful demonstrations - stay-aways, panelaços. posters, and so on. His call this week for people to go to work but block streets by parking their cars on main roads was totally ignored; instead there were more protesters on the streets.

But the big change is that disaffected young people who feel they have no future and no voice are becoming more violent. They are closing roads, stoning cars and demanding tolls. And they are physically attacking the police and Frelimo. To see the anger, look at the videos in the article below.

Mozambique saw this seven years ago in Cabo Delgado. Frelimo's hard line response instead of offering jobs and listening to young people means the civil war there is continuing and has not been stopped by Rwandan troops.

The Frelimo leadership are hoping to maintain the hard line. They hope the Constitutional Council anointing Daniel Chapo as President on Christmas eve and his inauguration on 12 January will solidify Frelimo power. But the youth rebellion this week is increasingly looking similar to the early days of the Cabo Delgado war.

Frelimo has already lost the support of the professionals - lawyers, doctors, and teachers. The Maputo middle class voted against Frelimo in recent elections. And young people are no longer listening to their elders, and are launching their own war.

Will the Frelimo leadership assume they are in control until they are forced to fly to Dubai? Or are there people in Frelimo who accept the need for major change? The protests are no longer about the elections, but about youth poverty, marginalisation, and lack of a future.

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