In Baku, developed countries managed to prevent comprehensive discussions of unilateral trade measures. They can only delay for so long.
For the first time at a climate conference, the Global South collectively warned about the effects of unilateral trade measures. In consultations with the Azerbaijani presidency at COP29, the G77+China group expressed "deep concern" that some developed countries' one-sided protectionist policies will undermine their economies.
In a statement seen by African Arguments, the bloc of 134 developing countries warned: "The rise in unilateral policies and actions in the political, economic and trade domains is a major threat to multilateralism and should be stopped...The use of a hard stick hitting on our heads and hands is not a solution to climate change response."
A major focus of the Global South's consternation is the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Introduced in 2023, the regulation imposes a carbon tax on certain imports such as aluminium, steel, fertilisers and cement. Other countries such as the UK and Australia are considering imposing their own versions.
The intention of these policies is to put a price on carbon and thus incentivise producers to adopt lower emitting practices. However, critics argue that these unilaterally imposed measures unfairly impact countries in the Global South that lack the resources to transition to clean energy. One study suggests that CBAM could reduce Africa's GDP by $25 billion, which is about three times the amount of development aid the EU provides to the continent.
"Many African countries are still reliant on carbon-intensive industries as they transition to greener economies," Ali Mohamed, Chair of the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), told African Arguments. "We feel that imposing CBAM without adequate support for these transitions can harm their economies and reduce the resources they have for adaptation and resilience."
The negotiator explained that the Global South pushed for trade measures to be discussed at COP29 in Baku. "We want to ensure that climate policies do not become inadvertent economic penalties for vulnerable nations," he said.
However, he says, their calls were "continuously opposed" by developed countries.
"Not this forum"
At COP28 in Dubai last year, the BASIC Group - comprising Brazil, South Africa, China, and India - argued that the impacts of unilateral trade measures should be a separate agenda item. Developed countries, and the EU in particular, disagreed. As a result, such discussions were integrated into other negotiation tracks such as response measures. The response measures track includes discussions on how countries' responses to climate change could have adverse impacts and how such impacts could be managed.
At COP29, the BASIC Group once again proposed a stand-alone agenda item on unilateral trade measures. The G77+China echoed these calls in their statement and called on parties "to refrain from playing the game of 'that forum, not this forum"'.
This was a reference to developed countries resisting discussions by arguing that the issue is inappropriate to the conference at hand. At climate talks, Global North negotiators have said issues such as CBAM are to do with trade. At forums like the World Trade Organisation, they have suggested that carbon border taxes are questions of climate policy.
For Mahendra Shunmoogam, Director of International Trade Policy for the Republic of South Africa, the distinction is nonsensical. "Things don't operate in silos," he says. "Climate change impacts trade and industrialisation and economic growth. Developed countries have been quite reluctant to recognise trade and other economic issues at COPs, but we can't have these discussions separately." Shunmoogam expressed similar concerns during COP29 negotiations as part of South Africa's delegation.
Some experts from the Global South believe that unilateral trade measures should be discussed at both trade and climate talks. The intergovernmental South Centre has elaborated on how measures like CBM violate WTO rules. Meanwhile, many have pointed out that the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), under which COPs operate, explicitly calls on parties to "promote a supportive and open international economic system". It warns that "measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade".
"Developed countries cannot make it go away"
Despite the efforts of the Global South, developed countries successfully rejected comprehensive discussions on unilateral trade measures at COP29. Instead, parties agreed to establish a five-year work plan as part of negotiations on response measures to "analyse, assess and report on the impacts of measures taken to combat climate change, including cross-border impacts".
As the concerns of the Global South grow, however, developed countries may find it increasingly difficult to defer discussions. At the Third South Summit in January 2024, the G77+China criticised "unilateral and discriminatory border adjustment mechanisms and taxes". After the G20 summit in Brazil, held at the same time as COP29, the Leaders' Declaration noted similar concerns. The clamour to address the issue is only likely to increase.
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"The G77 has converged on the issue of unilateral trade measures," says Avantika Goswami, Programme Manager for Climate Change at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE). "Developed countries most likely cannot make it go away, much as they will attempt to. The concerns of the developing world are real."
Many in the Global South feel it is a great injustice that their countries are suffering from both the Global North's historic actions in driving the climate crisis and from their purported solutions to it today. Many developing countries have high unemployment rates and are worried about ripple effects on their industry from measures like carbon border taxes. Regulations like CBAM were imposed without consultation with countries that may be significantly affected.
"Climate change began with developed countries industrialising and causing damage," says Shunmoogam . "Now they are taking unilateral action like CBAM that perpetuates inequalities...The reforms now must happen within the multilateral system."
Rishika Pardikar is a freelance environment reporter covering science, law, and policy.
