Ankara, Turkey — In a move aimed at easing one of the most contentious disputes in the Horn of Africa, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are set to meet face-to-face in Ankara, Turkey, this Wednesday.
The meeting, brokered by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, follows a formal invitation extended to both leaders.
According to sources close to the Somali Presidency, the initiative for these talks originated from Ethiopia, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed seeking a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing tensions. President Mohamud has agreed to the dialogue, signaling a potential turning point in the fraught relationship between the two East African neighbors.
The summit occurs against the backdrop of a significant diplomatic row triggered earlier this year when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, a region seeking independence from Somalia. Under this MoU, signed on January 1, Ethiopia would gain access to the sea through Somaliland's coastline in exchange for recognizing the region's statehood, a move that Somalia vehemently opposed as an infringement on its sovereignty.
Somalia has consistently denounced the agreement, labeling it as illegal and a violation of its territorial integrity. The fallout led Mogadishu to take retaliatory actions, including the expulsion of the Ethiopian ambassador and the threat of removing Ethiopian troops aiding in the fight against Islamist insurgents within Somali territory.
The Ankara meeting is seen as a critical juncture for de-escalation. Both countries have much at stake: Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of over 120 million people, is in dire need of reliable sea access for economic sustainability, while Somalia is keen on preserving its unity and territorial sovereignty.
Turkish mediation in this dispute underscores Ankara's growing influence in the Horn of Africa, where it has been expanding its diplomatic, economic, and military footprint. Turkey's involvement could potentially pave the way for a mutually acceptable arrangement that not only resolves the immediate dispute but also sets a precedent for regional stability.
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the talks. The agenda is expected to include discussions on how Ethiopia might secure maritime access in a manner that respects Somalia's territorial claims, possibly through alternative agreements or ports within Somalia's recognized borders.
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This meeting could also touch on broader issues of security cooperation and the role of foreign entities in regional affairs, considering Turkey's military presence in Somalia and Ethiopia's strategic partnerships.
As the talks approach, the international community watches closely, hoping for a breakthrough that could stabilize a region often marred by conflict and economic challenges. Whether these discussions will lead to a concrete resolution remains to be seen, but the mere fact of high-level dialogue is a positive sign in a landscape where diplomatic solutions have been scarce.
