If this retreat of the global powers into bipolarity and isolationism continues, the consequences are likely to be more chaos, unpredictability and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Listen to this article 6 min Listen to this article 6 min In a year defined by relentless geopolitical upheaval, the connection between geopolitics and financial markets remains unclear.

Despite the bloody conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, neither has significantly disrupted oil markets or derailed surging global stock markets. A wave of elections ousting incumbents or shocking political establishments across countries like India, France and indeed even in South Africa have had minimal impact on global capital markets.

Recent geopolitical shocks are a case in point. Clearly, no investment strategist could have predicted that South Korea's government might declare martial law, or that Syria's dictator, Bashar al-Assad, could be forced from power.

Yet both have happened in the past week. It is almost impossible to overstate the surprise of both of these. Syria had existed for 13 years in a limbo of civil war, and as a proxy for regional actors in the region. Then in 13 days, a dynasty that had ruled the Middle Eastern country since 1971 came crashing down.

Syria does not matter for financial markets

Does any of this matter first of all to financial markets? Almost certainly not. For decades, Syria has been a quasi-pariah...