Ethiopia's quest for access to the sea, a trending issue in regional politics, has taken a significant step with the signing of the Ankara Declaration between Ethiopia and Somalia. After months of negotiations characterized by hot debates, the agreement empirically de-escalates controversies surrounding Ethiopia's maritime ambitions.
Somalia has expressed its readiness to accommodate Ethiopia's demands, while Ethiopia has reaffirmed its political and security support for Somalia in turn. This mutual understanding is being supported by scholars for its potential to reshape regional dynamics.
The Ankara Declaration underscores the recognition of Ethiopia's right to access the sea, a cornerstone of Ethiopia's foreign policy in recent times. Institute of Foreign Affairs-IFA, European and American Affairs General Director and a Geopolitical Analyst Daraskedar Taye (PhD) expressed that the agreement represents a landmark in Ethiopia's access to sea agenda.
"Ethiopia's primary demand is securing access to the sea. This has been acknowledged, paving the way for further negotiations,"he said.
To him, the agreement also averts potential conflicts fueled by external actors. Daraskedar pointed out some anti-peace elements' role in exacerbating tensions in the Horn of Africa (HoA). "Its attempts to meddle in Ethiopia-Somalia relations was concerning. "If Somalia had continued conspiracies with external destructive forces, the two neighbors (Ethiopia and Somalia) might have entered into a mutual crisis," the Analyst stated.
The Red Sea region, a geopolitical hotspot attracting global powers, poses additional challenges. Ethiopia's quest for sea access directly intersects with the strategic interests of global actors and competitive regional powers. The Red Sea' is significant. Ethiopia's demand to gain presence along the coastline is due to its economic and security issues. Potential threats from external forces seeking to exploit the region's instability are inevitable, he indicated.
Ethiopia's economic aspirations further stimulate its maritime agenda. Daraskedar explained that the country's growing economy and efforts to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are hampered by its landlocked status. Investors demand stable logistical services, including access to ports, which Ethiopia cannot guarantee them while remaining landlocked. The diversification of port access is also critical as Ethiopia's trade volume increases. Diplomatic proposals to secure sea access should continue until Ethiopia's demands are fully realized, he suggested.
From a legal perspective, Lawyer Andualem Bewuketu defined Ethiopia's access to sea quest as a strategically calculated initiative by the prime minister. He highlighted the significance of setting sea access as a national agenda.
The lawyer also praised the Ankara Declaration as a significant step towards achieving Ethiopia's broader and future diplomatic goals. The agreement lays a foundation for future cooperation. However, he cautioned that Ethiopia's journey to secure sea access would not be without obstacles.
He compared it to the challenges Ethiopia faced during the construction of the Abbay Dam, which succeeded despite intense opposition from external forces.
The Ankara Declaration's impact is beyond Ethiopia and Somalia. By averting a potential conflict, the agreement contributes to regional stability. "Preserving national interests while preventing conflict, is a double victory for Ethiopia. Nevertheless, the future remains fraught with challenges," Andualem described.
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The HoA continues to face security crises, including Somalia's internal instability and Sudan's ongoing conflict. Ethiopia's access to sea ambition may also face resistance from other regional actors and global powers competing for influence in the Red Sea, he highlighted.
"The Ankara Declaration marks another milestone in Ethiopia's quest for sea access, balancing its national interests with regional stability. While the agreement has de-escalated immediate tensions, the implications of Ethiopia's maritime ambitions remain unconcluded," he noted.
As Daraskedar noted, adjusting national interests without challenges is just an ideal. Ethiopia's path to achieving its maritime goals yet requires overcoming complex diplomatic, economic, and security hurdles.
BY YESUF ENDRIS
THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD FRIDAY 20 DECEMBER 2024
