Demonstrations cost big projects $1.7 bn but give local people more power, and may encourage renegotiation
Mozambique has become an extractive economy, with foreign owned mines and industries exporting raw materials and profits. This made the owners and their Frelimo partners rich and powerful. But the two months of demonstrations have changed that power. The fall in share prices of nearly £2bn of the big investors shows just how profitable the "big projects" are, and shows how much more government and local people could earn from those resources.
During the election campaign, on 15 September, former president Joaquim Chissano called for the renegotiation of natural recourse contacts. He had negotiated some of those contracts, and is effectively admitting he gave too much away. And several of those contracts are now about to expire and must be renegotiated.
The Mozal aluminium smelter was the first of the big projects and opened in 2000. It is now owned by the Australian company South32. The company imports alumina and smelts it into aluminium using Cahora Bassa electricity. The original cost of Mozal was $2bn, but its owners paid only $1bn. The other $1bn was the World Bank and five national development agencies. South32 pays only $15mn per year in taxes and royalties, and Mozambique gains little from its "development" project.
In the past five weeks demonstrators have blocked the roads and disrupted the supplies of alumina. In those five weeks the share value of South32 has dropped by $1.5bn - more than the amount that the company invested. And the cut in the production is expected to be only temporary. Clearly this is a hugely profitable project for South32.
But renegotiations have already started, because the Cahora Bassa electricity contract ends in 2025. Much of the aluminium is exported to Europe, and the EU will begin to impose import carbon duties in 2026. This will make aluminium made with carbon free Cahora Bassa electricity much cheaper than aluminium made from gas or coal which contains carbon. So negotiations are under way to continue to use Cahora Bassa electricity at a higher price. At present, government gains so little from Mozal that it could allow the smelter to close, and sell Cahora Bassa electricity to another exporter.
Meanwhile Syrah Resources, also from Australia, is a major graphite produce at Balama in Cabo Delgado. It received a $150mn loan in November from the US government, but disruption forced it to temporarily close the mine on 12 December. In one week since then, Syrah lost $110mn in share value.
Nearly all resource companies operating in Mozambique made promises to local people which were never kept and which became long-standing grievances which were incorporate into local post-election protests. But for a few companies, quick response meant there was no damage. Kenmare's heavy sands mine in Moma came under pressure from local people because Kenmare had promised to build a bridge to link local communities, but never did. In a week Kenmar's value fell $40mn, much more than the cost of the bridge. Kenmare quickly promised to the build the bridge.
And at the gas project on the Afungi peninsula, TotalEnergies had rehoused people forced to move from Afungi, but not compensated people who lost farmland and livelihoods there. There were 2000 protesters, some with placards demanding land. On 11 December TotalEnergies offered land and settled the protests.
What the protests make clear is how they push down the share price of these companies. Local people have power to demand changes. And these price falls show that Chissano is right, and resource deals can be renegotiated. Government has power too.
Fear of chaos Monday
US and other security forces met in South Africa
The international community fears major demonstrations and even a possible uprising on Monday 23 December when results are expected to be announced. US intelligence officials flew into at Kruger Mpumalanga International Airport on board a C-17 Globemaster aircraft on 12 December. They met with representatives of South Africa's National intelligence Coordinating Committee in a hotel in Krueger Park.
The press was briefed that that the main agenda of the meetings was to prepare for possible instability in Mozambique. Plans included possible evacuation of foreign citizens and embassy staff. Intelligence sources briefed the South African press that diplomats and other advanced teams are working on various scenarios in the event of a serious uprising. The consultations also included UN and NATO staff. A British Air Force Airbus A400M was detected landing into Gaborone, Botswana, on Friday 13 December with a call sign of an emergency flight. Planning includes the ability to handle flights from Botswana and South Africa, and the need for fuel supplies. The magazine Military Africa reported that "this coordinated effort highlights the international community’s concern over the stability of Mozambique and the potential for widespread unrest. The involvement of multiple agencies and the strategic planning for emergency evacuations underscore the seriousness of the situation "
Military Africa also noted that there is a US military training mission (related to Cabo Delgado) that might become involved.
South African foreign minister Ronald Lamola met with Mozambican Mozambican Foreign Minister Verónica Macamo in Malelane, South Africa, Wednesday 18 December. A range of ministries were involved, including police and defence. A major issue was the disruption of the Lebombo and Ressano Garcia border post.
Trying to outflank Venancio Mondlane with no work until after Christmas
The Constitutional Council has announced no date to declare election results. But making clear who is in charge, Frelimo Secretary General Daniel Chapo announced on Thursday 19 December that the CC will declare results on Monday 23 December and will name him as President. The CC final results are read out in a public ceremony, and posted on the CC website https://cconstitucional.org.mz/jurisprudencia/.
Opposition leader Venancio Mondlane has called a general strike on Monday. And If, as Chapo claims, he is named President, then Mondlane has called for "chaos".
But on Friday (20 December) the Minister of Labour announced that Christmas eve, 24 December, will be a special holiday (Tolerância de Ponte). That means few people will go to work Monday and Tuesday, and many will not work until after New Year's Day.
Thus Frelimo hopes that the chaos will take place on almost empty streets. But how will young people respond?
Fraud was so total that no one can know 'electoral truth', but negotiation remains possible
In his Monday 16 December Facebook broadcast, Venancio Mondlane told supporters to wait until the CC decision is read out or published. Then "if we get the electoral truth, we will go towards peace. If it is an electoral lie, we will bring the country down to a precipice, chaos and disorder." What CC presiding judge Lúcia Ribeiro says will “determine whether the country will move towards tranquillity or towards the precipice” . And, as we report above, the international community thinks chaos is possible.
The problem is no one can discover "electoral truth". I have worked on all the multi-party elections, from 1994. In those past elections it was possible to identify frauds, estimate their size, and thus estimate who won and what was approximate "electoral truth". In last year's municipal elections and this year's national elections, the fraud was so extensive that I cannot unpack all the frauds. At the start, failing to register in opposition zones and adding a million ghost voters in Frelimo zones. For the first time, and totally illegally, the four key polling station staff were all Frelimo and had special training in the days before voting on how to cheat. And many other frauds. Sorry Venancio, too many people worked hard to corrupt this election. There is no electoral truth this year.
The Constitutional Council has spent weeks trying to sort out false documents from real ones, and hopes to announce an "electoral truth". But there are too many fake or forged or falsely corrected documents.
Frelimo says the CC will announce Daniel Chapo as president and Frelimo controlling parliament. But it is widely predicted that the CC will not accept the CNE's giving an overwhelming victory to Frelimo, and instead the CC will give parliament seats and a few governorships to the opposition. But that will not convince anyone. There are three other choices which would create space for serious negotiation.
The CC could announce that:
1. Neither Chapo nor Mondlane won 50% of the presidential vote, so there must be a second round between the two; or
2. There could be a complete national recount, perhaps excluding some ghost voters; or
3. The election could be declared invalid and unrecoverable.
No one would accept rerunning the election or recounting the votes with the same grossly fraudulent electoral staff. But there are underway several attempts to organise negotiations which could develop a way to have new elections in 2025, with a revised law and new people. Hard-liners on all sides will oppose, but by now the voice of thousands of people in the street must also be heard. And negotiating the knotty issue of elections could create confidence to negotiate constitutional and other changes.
There is no electoral truth this year.
But the response does not have to be chaos. Frelimo believes that giving a few stolen parliament seats back to the opposition, closing Mozambique for Christmas week and killing more protesters will create calm. But it will not, because young people have seen that they have power. Preventing chaos will require genuine negotiations.
Nyusi said he won't extend his term and won't declare state of emergency or state of siege. He was speaking in his joint Christmas message and final national speech on Thursday 19 December.
Personal view from Joseph Hanlon
Protests show Frelimo did not realise it had lost support
The protests which have continued and grown for two months surprised most people (including this writer). And the demonstrations evolved. Initially, they changed from being about grossly fraudulent elections to being about long-standing grievances. Most important are poverty and inequality, in which the wealth of the country is taken by powerful people in Frelimo. Most young people feel they have no future. And they have also evolved into decentralised and locally organised protests, with the main communication on social media.
Because it is now so arrogant and out of touch, Frelimo itself created the unexpected explosion. First the fraud was widespread and blatantly obvious in national elections this year and municipal elections last year. They seemed intended to show Mozambicans that Frelimo could remain in power though fraudulent elections.
Second, it created Venancio Mondlane as the opposition leader. He was elected mayor of Maputo last year, but the Frelimo-controlled election commission (CNE) and Constitutional Council simply gave the victory to Frelimo with no explanation. So Mondlane stood for president this year. He first stood as head of a coalition, CAD, which the CNE retrospectively disqualified - an action the bar association (OAM) said was totally illegal. So he stood as an independent candidate for President with support of a small party, Podemos. As a charismatic speaker and skilled user of social media, his prominence grew and he became the defacto leader of the opposition.
Then on 19 October, days before the CNE announcement of the results, two senior people in the Mondlane campaign were gunned down in their car, by what appears to have been a police hit squad. So Mondlane called a general strike and rally at the location of the killings. During the relatively small rally, when Mondlane was giving a press conference, the police tear-gassed the press.
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Shortly after that, Mondlane was charged with treason and forced to flee the country. Since then he has given daily Facebook talks with protest instructions. But with no preparation of a local leadership, the demonstrations - and the police response - grew. In two months of protests, more than 130 protesters have been killed by police. In response, the protests have become more violent with attacks, including burning Frelimo offices and police stations.
The border post with South Africa at Ressano Garcia became the site of major confrontations. One protester was killed, which led to more than 100 local people blocking the main road to the border. Since then, the key border has been frequently closed. Local touches included using lorries to block the road, and people setting up tables and chairs on the road. By early December the government sent in the UIR riot police, who are armed and trained and had fought in Cabo Delgado.
Frelimo is clearly worried about social media. On 12 December during a UIR action. Albino Jose Sibia (known as Mano Shottas) was broadcasting live on Facebook when he was shot and killed. His last words in his broadcast were “Can’t film anymore, I have been shot guys. Help help, I am dying guys". At the funeral two days later Strip Pedrito was broadcasting live on Facebook when he was shot by the UIR and seriously injured.
The past two months has unexpectedly demonstrated that Frelimo has lost support, not just of young people but of significant parts of the professional middle class - doctors, lawyers, and teachers.
So far the response has been a refusal to negotiate and to try to maintain control through violence. Frelimo assumes Daniel Chapo will be inaugurated on 15 January. With a new president and large majority in parliament, Frelimo believes it can ignore and supress the protests, which they expect will be diminished over Christmas. If they are wrong, this could continue for months.
Further reading: The Zitamar (6 Dec) article "From liberators to enemies of the people" captures the mood and gives a good summary. https://bit.ly/Moz-El-Zit
For Portuguese speakers, there is a good interview on VOA Portuguese (5 Dec) with Joao Feijó, "‘We are almost in anarchy’ in Mozambique“: "'Ja estamos quase na anarquia' em Moçambique, diz Joao Feijó". https://www.voaportugues.com/a/ja-estamos-quase-na-anarquia-em-moçambique-diz-joao-feijó/7888935.html
Kakistocracy is The Economist's word of the year. It means "government by the worst people." It first appeared in English in the 17th century. It was created from the Greek - kakisto means "worst" and cracy means "government" or "rule", as in democracy or bureaucracy.
