Economic history has proven that just when there don't appear to be any lurking threats, something leaps out.
Listen to this article 8 min Listen to this article 8 min In the world of finance and economics, December is not just about office parties and Christmas trees. It also happens to be the 2025 Year Ahead season, as the "bulge bracket" institutions of Wall Street put out their annual forecast tomes as to what they see looming on the horizon for the global economy.
Although the actual predictive ability of such documents is, of course, questionable, they are extremely valuable for gauging the consensus views of what economists and investors are expecting for the year ahead.
On this basis, two points are clear. First, the US has been winning and will continue to win. Since Covid, its economy has been the strongest of all major economies and its stock market has far outperformed all others.
The consensus on this point is striking. Almost no one, it seems, is willing to bet against America at this time. Investors are overweighting the US, and economists suggest they should double down.
Fundamental to this point is the re-election of Donald Trump. Anything that he does to hurt the global economy - like a tariff-led trade war - is only likely to...
