Now that Eskom has managed to keep the lights on for almost a year, a political consensus seems to be developing that the methodology used to save Eskom can just simply be transferred to Transnet. Sadly, I don't think this is the case.

The ANC had its pre-Budget National Lekgotla this past weekend. Bloomberg reported after the meeting that transformation committee chairperson Zuko Godlimpi said on the sidelines that Transnet needed "something massive".

Godlimpi didn't mention a number the ANC considers sufficient to fund Transnet, still he did say that "had it not been for the R245-billion support package [for Eskom] we would not be here, and this was against institutional advice [because] everyone had given up on the capacity of Eskom".

"The debt programme was structured in a very detailed and specific manner in that it was not to deal with its overall company problems, but towards a specific intervention."

As it happens, Treasury already provided a R47-billion guarantee for Transnet way back in 2023. In a sense, this was forced because, at this point, Transnet started breaching its debt covenants.

As it stands, Transnet is sailing very close to the wind. In its results to September, Transnet acknowledged that it was still in breach of debt valued at around R45-billion, which technically allows lenders the right to declare a default. But in this case, Transnet reported it had sought...