How the Libyan conflict transformed human trafficking routes in West Africa, and why Europe's response has so far failed.
Migrant smuggling and trafficking has flourished through Libya since its 2011 conflict. This article explains how this happened and why European policies aimed at addressing the issue are inadequate.
Migrant smuggling generally refers to the movement of people with their consent; while Trafficking in Persons (TIP) refers to the movement of people against their will - though the distinction is not clear cut and journeys often combine elements of the two. In particular, women have been disproportionately impacted by trafficking.
The three phases
In the first of three phases, the Libyan conflict led to the emergence of armed factions and an economy dominated by violence that has fostered migrant smuggling and trafficking. This led to a smuggling boom in Niger and Nigeria, supporting economic growth in Niger and worsening violence in Nigeria. Increased flows of refugees, migrants and asylum seekers through Libya further expanded the conflict economy.
A pattern has emerged in which Libyan groups seek political and financial support from European policymakers while allowing smuggling to continue
In the second phase, European policymakers sought to reduce irregular arrivals from Libya. Rather than prioritizing efforts to rein in Libyan armed groups, policymakers forged partnerships with them out of perceived necessity. In neighbouring Niger, European leaders pressurized Nigerien authorities to criminalize the movement of people.
These shifts increased the perils faced by those on the move, as migrant exploitation grew in scale and severity. In this phase, the numbers reaching Europe fell, but large numbers of people continued to move. This expanded the level of violence and exploitation suffered by migrants.
In the third and current phase, the numbers of people reaching Europe have rebounded, though remaining below the highs of 2016. A transactional pattern has emerged in which Libyan groups seek political and financial support from European policymakers while allowing smuggling to continue, ushering in a degree of de facto regulation. But this has done nothing to tackle the factors that led to the rise of migrant smuggling in Libya or beyond.
Phase 1: 2011-2017-Expansion and boom
Libya's agricultural sector had been in decline in the south since the 1990s due to international sanctions. Cross-border trade and smuggling increased dramatically. The conflict in 2011 led to further declines in state-run agricultural projects.
The collapse of the Gaddafi regime and ongoing governance crisis led to the rapid expansion of migrant smuggling networks based in Libya to facilitate maritime passage to Europe. The numbers of migrants entering Italy across the Mediterranean increased from around 28,500 in 2011 to nearly 163,000 in 2016.
Nationally, rival groups competing for the Libyan state sought to sustain local alliances through patron-client relationships rather than by supporting the wider population. These patronage networks inhibit the rebuilding of the state. At a local level, disputes over the right to govern led to a fragmentation of legitimate authority and a decline of law and order.
This encouraged local communities to develop their own armed factions that soon grew to dominate economic activity in these areas through the establishment of protection markets, and subsequently, their own business ventures.
These dynamics have inhibited a transition to coherent national government. Rival armed groups have fought over strategic transport routes, valuable infrastructure and for influence over state institutions. The illicit economy boomed, with migrant smuggling and trafficking growing rapidly.
Such practices had existed for decades, but not at such scale. The routes from Nigeria to Libya existed in the precolonial era, were entrenched by the transatlantic slave trade and used over the past 50 years by people seeking employment in North Africa or Europe, including low-skilled agricultural workers and later (forced) sex workers to Italy. The networks were scaled up significantly after the Libyan state collapsed post-2011.
The historic legacies, combined with local disputes over land ownership and governance, have created a hostile environment for foreign nationals in Libya. Many Sub-Saharan African people have experienced racist abuse and discrimination. Against this backdrop, the exploitation of and violence against people moving through the country became a defining feature of post-2011 Libya and an important source of illicit revenue.
Related content How migrant smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya A Chatham House study estimated that migrant smuggling and trafficking generated $978 million in revenues within Libya in 2016. Smuggling led to wider economic development around illicit markets. In the Libyan city of Kufra, smuggling revenues have in part been invested in local services. More widely, satellite analysis commissioned through the XCEPT programme indicates that artisanal agriculture expanded after 2015 following a period of continual contraction since the 1990s.
Agadez, Niger: the development of a transit hub
Developments in Libya reverberated across the southern border in Niger, where smuggling was socially accepted and akin to a semi-formal industry. Agadez has a long history of transnational trade, labour migration and housing transnational communities.
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As barriers to travel through Libya eased, Agadez experienced increased demand for smuggling services and an expansion of smuggling networks. By 2013, an influx of people from throughout West Africa, most of whom wanted to travel to Europe, arrived in Agadez to reach Libya.
Government officials in Agadez openly celebrated the prosperity associated with migration.
These were different cohorts from those who traditionally went to Libya for employment and who engaged in seasonal or circular migration, where they would work in Libya for a time before returning home. The trend towards seeking entry to Europe accelerated through 2014 and 2015.
Thousands of migrants left Agadez for Libya every week, a boon for the Agadez economy. In 2016, an estimated 333,000 migrants passed through the city. ECOWAS citizens were permitted visa-free travel to Libya, where costs for crossing the Mediterranean were falling dramatically, sparking a surge in irregular migration via Agadez to Sebha in Libya.
Government officials in Agadez openly celebrated the prosperity associated with migration, as drivers, fixers, landlords who ran migrant houses in neighbourhoods known as ghettos, shop owners, currency dealers, mechanics and restaurant owners benefited.
