‘The demonstrations are part of a subversive agenda to destabilise our country. It is the continuation of the terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado province,' President Daniel Chapo told diplomats Thursday 20 February. ‘We have no doubt that these attacks are aimed at creating chaos in order to squander our strategic mineral resources,’ emphasised Chapo. He thanked ambassadors for the 'reaffirmation of support' and 'solidarity' he has received from 'friendly countries.' (LUSA 20 Feb)
But Chapo wants unquestioning support and not advice. The EU Elections Observation Mission reported in Maputo on 30 January. 'There is no political solution to this crisis without a dialogue that is truly inclusive and in which Venâncio Mondlane participates,' declared the head of the European Union (EU) mission, Laura Ballarin. 'The political dialogue that can bring a political and peaceful solution to Mozambique must be inclusive, that is, Venâncio Mondlane must be at that table,' she said. (LUSA 30 Jan)
Mondlane gained the second most votes in the election (by Frelimo's count) and thus is a member of the official Council of State. But Frelimo hardliners will not let Chapo talk with him. This refusal to look at internal roots of conflict does go back to the Cabo Delgado war. Military support from Rwanda, the EU and others has not ended the seven year old war, because it does not have a military solution.
In October 2021 four of the key donors - World Bank, EU, ADB and UNDP - presented a proposal ERDIN for stopping the war through development. It said that "at the root of this insurgency are perceptions of inequality, exclusion and marginalisation [and] perceptions of injustice in the distribution of benefits and opportunities arising from extractive activities." And it called for more "inclusive and equitable access to public services" and to "strengthen inclusive governance, with a focus on citizen participation [and] fighting corruption". Then-President Filipe Nyusi refused to allow the proposal to be presented to the Council of Ministers. The refusal to deal with the roots of the insurgency means that three years later the war continues.
But Frelimo knew there was a growing problem. A majority of voters are young and with a growing sense that there are no jobs and they have no future. In the 2023 municipal election they backed Venancio Mondlane and he received a majority of votes for mayor of Maputo city, and we saw the results sheets proving this. But Frelimo-dominated courts and election commission gave the election to the Frelimo candidate. Frelimo knew it could not win the national election in 2024 so it organised an unprecedented fraud. EU observers saw results being openly changed. Young voters had overwhelmingly backed Mondlane for President, but no detailed results were made available and Chapo was declared president.
Young people had tried to do it by the book, through voting. And the results reinforced their perceptions of inequality, exclusion, marginalisation and injustice. Initial small protests grew quickly and became protests about poverty and lack of jobs and a future. Police shot and killed more than 300 demonstrators, but the protests grew.
And the protests have moved back to Cabo Delgado and elsewhere. New style civilian protests have won concessions from coal, heavy sands, graphite and gas companies - in all cases simply to carry out earlier promises.
The only weapons young people have are themselves and the ability to disrupt. They realise that without lethal weapons, their only power is disrupting the economy - blocking main roads and attacking toll booths that provide an indirect income to the government. But the Frelimo elite refused to listen. So some youth turned to violence attacking government, Frelimo and police buildings. And it did turn to looting and attacking houses of Frelimo leaders. Mondlane has become less a leader than a voice of youth in brief rallies in Maputo and other cities and in regular social media broadcasts. And he used social media to call for an end to looting, which did then largely stop.
In Cabe Delgado the insurgency could have been stopped by creating a few thousand jobs, at a cost much less than the Rwandan mercenaries. Now Frelimo is allowing substantial damage to the national economy rather than listen to the grievances of the young.
Chapo says violence does not bring concessions, but it did. He recently reduced VAT on a few basic goods and reduced fuel prices. But he is really just reversing increases which were demanded by the IMF for a recent agreement. Following IMF instructions VAT was charged on a few additional basic goods and a fuel subsidy was discontinued. Will the IMF allow them to be reversed?
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Young people know that Mozambique is already in a serious financial crisis and their non-violent protests are being heard. Rather than concede Chapo wants to increase the pressure. He has put the army on the streets and said the protesters are terrorists. But a hard line has not worked in Cabo Delgado, where regular insurgent actions continue, and will not work in the rest of the country either, where widespread daily road closures continue.
There are many players in this. Donors have continued to support Frelimo because they want Mozambique's minerals, but the war and protests has disrupted mining and gas. The IMF wants to keep its reputation as the hard man imposing neoliberalism and austerity, but it cannot claim success in a failing country. Frelimo oligarchs grow wealthy through commissions and rents but transport disruptions hit that. So they may be prepared to sacrifice a small part of their income and pride by taking less money. And negotiations including Mondlane could lead to agreement as to how best to use extra money to benefit young people.
But saying jobless protesters are terrorists will not work in Maputo any more than it has in Cabo Delgado.
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