Critics argue that the opposition's failure to establish a robust presence on the ground, despite numerous political activities, has left them lagging behind in the race to confront President Museveni's government.
As Uganda's political landscape braces for the 2026 elections, questions are emerging about whether the opposition is effectively mobilising to challenge the National Resistance Movement (NRM) regime.
Critics argue that the opposition's failure to establish a robust presence on the ground, despite numerous political activities, has left them lagging behind in the race to confront President Museveni's government.
The opposition, while visibly active, seems to be caught in a pattern of reacting to issues rather than proactively organizing.
Political parties, such as the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), appear to have taken a backseat, focusing on occasional events and, in some cases, seemingly going on "leave" rather than building lasting political infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the National Unity Platform (NUP) has been preoccupied with confrontations with security forces, and other new entrants like the People's Front for Transition (PFT) have yet to establish solid ground structures.
Nicholas Opiyo, a political commentator, is not optimistic about the opposition's prospects, stating, "The opposition has failed to think outside the box."
He added: "It's as though they are caught in the shadow of an imperial presidency, lacking imagination on how to respond to the current regime. The result is that they are heading into elections without proper organisation."
Opiyo further emphasised the urgency of the situation, noting that nominations for the 2026 elections are already scheduled for June, but opposition parties have yet to show the kind of grassroots mobilization needed to challenge the incumbent government effectively.
While opposition leaders have been vocal in criticizing the NRM's tactics, they admit that the regime's actions, including a focus on the Parish Development Model (PDM), are designed to divert attention from genuine political challenges.
FDC's Patrick Amuriat highlighted that the NRM's maneuvers create a time-wasting game, which he believes limits the opposition's ability to engage the public meaningfully.
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"All this is to divert the attention of the opposition from offering a real challenge to Museveni's NRM," Amuriat said.
He also emphasised that the political landscape has been manipulated to sideline other political players, leaving the opposition with limited space to organise and project their policies.
Disjointed Opposition Strategy
Amuriat suggested that opposition parties should take a more structured approach, forming groups to address various political issues.
Instead of focusing all attention on one issue--such as the incarceration of opposition leader Kizza Besigye--the opposition should adopt a diversified strategy to engage voters on multiple fronts.
"Opposition needs to structure--attach different groups to tackle different situations. For instance, if we focus on civil disobedience against Besigye's incarceration, that should not monopolize all our attention," Amuriat explained.
As the political battle for 2026 intensifies, the opposition faces the challenge of revitalising its strategies and mobilising support from a population that has grown disillusioned with years of political stagnation.
Whether they can find a way to turn their fortunes around in time for the next election remains to be seen. For now, many argue that the opposition has not only lost time--they may have already run out of it.
As the clock ticks toward 2026, the big question remains: Is the opposition creative enough to mobilize, or has it already missed its window?
