If Zimbabwean farmers were gamblers, they would be playing a rigged game whose odds seem to be getting worse.
While the 1992 drought is infamous, remembered as one of the worst in the country's - if not Southern African - history, Zimbabwe's story with droughts is much broader.
Over the 80 years from the turn of the 20th century (between 1900 and 1979) the country recorded at least seven major droughts.
Recorded data show that the worst years were 1911/1912, 1915/1916, 1921/1922, 1923/1924, 1946/1947, 1967/1968 and 1972/1973.
From independence (1980) to date, Zimbabwe has experienced 13 major droughts.
"The following recorded drought seasons were associated with declines in crop production: 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1992/1993, 1995/1996, 2002/2003, 2004/2005, 2007/2008, 2011/2012, 2012/2013, 2015/2016, 2019/2020, 2021/2022 and 2023/2024," highlighted the International Finance Corporation (IFC) agriculture value chain specialist Mr Master Mushonga while presenting during an Index Insurance Project Results Dissemination Workshop last April.
The data shows that the occurrence of droughts has been exponential over the decades.
If seven droughts occurred over an initial period of 80 years, then 13 droughts occurred over the next period of 45 years, it means the rate of droughts has increased by approximately 230 percent from the first period to the second.
This percentage change reflects the increase in the average number of droughts per year between the two periods.
It can also be noted that the frequency of droughts has increased since 2000.
In the two decades 1980 to 1989 and 1990 to 1999, there were two droughts in each decade.
Between 2000 and 2009, there were three droughts and between 2010 and 2019 there were also three droughts.
And half-way through the current decade, there have been two droughts.
To estimate the probability of droughts occurring between 2025 and 2030, one can analyse and infer from the historical data.
From the given data, it can be observed that the frequency of droughts increased in the new millennium.
Droughts occurred in nine out of 22 years (from the 2002/2003 farming season to the 2023/2024 farming season).
The average interval between droughts is approximately 2,44 years.
Using this information, one can estimate the probability of droughts occurring between 2025 and 2030.
Assuming a uniform distribution of droughts, one can calculate the probability as follows: number of years between 2025 and 2030 is six years.
So, to calculate the expected number of droughts in six years, we divide six by 2,44, which is approximately equal to 2,46.
Since it is impossible to have a fraction of a drought, one can round down to two expected droughts between 2025 and 2030.
According to these basic calculations, the probability of at least one drought occurring between 2025 and 2030 is approximately equal to 83 percent.
But, this is a simplified analysis and does not take into account other factors that may influence drought occurrence, such as climate change, the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events and other environmental factors.
Drought is not unique to Zimbabwe, of course.
Globally, drought affects about 1,5 billion people each decade, costing economies US$125 billion, according to United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) data.
It is a global problem, but Zimbabwe has it particularly bad.
More droughts?
Although the country is historically drought-prone, climate change is making things worse.
Zimbabwe is heating up at a rate faster than the global average (at 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade), which means that the country's future droughts will likely be more frequent and severe.
According to World Bank data, temperature in Zimbabwe increased to 22.07 degrees Celsius in 2023 from 21.83 degrees Celsius in 2022.
The country's temperature averaged 21.29 degrees Celsius from 1901 until 2023, reaching an all-time high of 22.78 degrees Celsius in 2005 and a record low of 20.30 degrees Celsius in 1910.
The increasing temperature patterns in Zimbabwe are reflected on the global scale.
World Meteorological Organisation's 'The State of the Global Climate 2023' report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 degrees Celsius.
It is therefore, not surprising that Zimbabwe experienced an El Niño-induced drought during the 2023/2024 agricultural season.
The 2015/2016 drought was also an El Niño-induced one.
The 2015/2016 and 2023/2024 droughts are perhaps a taste of what is to come.
According to the UNCCD, between 2000 and 2019, the number and duration of droughts rose by 29 percent worldwide.
The UNCCD also estimates that by 2050, three-quarters of the world's population will be affected by drought in some form.
Solutions
While the global average for severe drought exposure is expected to continue increasing, Zimbabwe's exposure is likely to be much higher due to its dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
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To break this cycle, Zimbabwe is already re-modelling how it manages water and agriculture.
The Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development has indicated plans to boost the country's irrigated area to 496 000 hectares - consisting of the current developed and functional 217 000 hectares and 275 000 hectares additional area required during the summer cropping season.
Investing in irrigation infrastructure would help farmers survive the increasingly common dry spells.
The country, through the National Development Strategy 1 (2021-2025), has been implementing a number of climate adaptation initiatives, such as enhancement of its hydro-meteorological early warning system.
According to the NDS-1 Mid-term Review, resources were mobilised in strengthening hydro-meteorological early warning systems and wetlands mapping, "which saw the 10 percent coverage realised in 2021 increased to 60 percent in 2022."
Zimbabwe needs to accelerate its climate adaptation efforts.
"To strengthen Zimbabwe's resilience to weather shocks and climate change, a dual approach is essential, involving substantial investment in climate adaptation and the enhancement of anticipatory actions," says World Bank senior agriculture specialist Dr Esther Chigumira in a report titled, 'Improving Resilience to Weather Shocks and Climate Change' that was published last month.
