- Ruto's scorecard relied on faulty math. He got the 2022 baseline wrong, underestimated the 2024 numbers, and jumped the gun on 2025 data.
- The deputy president and the agriculture minister used export data, which contradicted more accurate customs records.
- While the deputy president got the 2024 tea production numbers right, his historical figures were off.
On 18 March 2025, the Kenyan government published president William Ruto's mid-term scorecard, tracking progress on his election promises. It appeared in that week's edition of MyGov, the official government newspaper.
The scorecard claimed that tea export earnings grew by nearly a third from 2022, when Ruto took office, to 2025. Tea is Kenya's leading export crop, earning the country over US$1 billion yearly. Kenya is also the world's largest black tea exporter.
A week earlier, agriculture minister Mutahi Kagwe told the senate that export earnings rose from KSh136.5 billion in 2021 to KSh181.69 billion ($1.4 billion) in 2024.
While researching these claims, our internal artificial intelligence tools flagged a news claim that Kenya's tea output had grown by nearly 35% in two years. This was attributed to deputy president Prof Kithure Kindiki on 8 January 2025.
We took a look at five claims about tea by the three politicians.
President Ruto's scorecard
The scorecard linked this claim to Ruto's promise to "ensure farming is profitable and income is predictable".
Were tea export earnings in 2022 at KSh138 billion?
The Tea Board of Kenya oversees production and sales and publishes monthly reports. In a full-year report for 2023, the agency said tea export earnings "had reached a record of KSh180.57 billion from KSh138.09 billion the previous year (2022)" - a 31% jump.
But there was a problem: official customs data from the tax authority showed different figures. We have asked the tea board about the discrepancies and will update this report with their response.
In this report, we've used the customs data, as it reflects verified transactions, including private and non-auction sales.
For 2022, customs data showed tea exports totalled KSh163.15 billion, at least KSh25 billion more than claimed by the tea board and the president's scorecard. We also checked the bureau's 2024 economic survey. This listed 2022 tea export earnings as KSh163.28 billion.
Were tea exports KSh181.7 billion 'in 2025'?
The latest full-year data is from 2024, as 2025 has just begun.
Monthly customs data shows tea exports rose to KSh188.27 billion in 2023 and slightly to KSh188.96 billion in 2024. The tea board claimed a slightly lower figure of KSh181.7 billion for 2024.
So, from 2022 to 2024, tea exports grew by 16%, not 32%.
In short, the claim used the wrong numbers: the 2022 figure was off, the 2024 total was underestimated, and 2025 data isn't out yet. - Alphonce Shiundu
Agriculture minister Mutahi Kagwe
When Kagwe spoke in the senate on 12 March, he said tea reforms had raised export earnings.
But his 2021 figures were incorrect. Customs data shows exports earned a lower KSh130.84 billion that year. The economic survey confirmed this, while the tea board's 2021 data isn't publicly available.
The minister's figure of KSh181.69 billion in 2024 appears to be from the tea board. The export data from customs shows it to be higher at KSh188.96 billion.
Kagwe missed a chance to show even better results. - Alphonce Shiundu
Deputy president Kithure Kindiki
The deputy president claimed even higher figures - nearly KSh30 billion more in 2024.
Kenya sells its tea to over 90 countries. Tea board data shows exports were worth KSh138.1 billion in 2022 and KSh180.6 billion in 2023.
However, customs data from the national statistics agency shows tea exports were worth KSh163 billion in 2022, rising to KSh188.27 billion in 2023 and KSh188.96 billion in 2024. (See our workings here.)
Kindiki also got his figures wrong. - Tess Wandia
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The People Daily newspaper attributed this claim to Kindiki, citing the deputy president's posts on Facebook and X.
While the tea board publishes monthly data, its latest full-year report is for 2024. It also includes five years of data showing that the deputy president's figures were wrong.
Source: Tea Board of Kenya annual report 2023
Tea production was 535 million kilograms in 2022, not 445 million kilograms as Kindiki claimed. It rose to 570 kilograms in 2023, not 558 kilograms.
These figures match the latest economic survey from the national data agency.
The actual increase was 6.6%, not 35%, as Kindiki's numbers suggested. The claim is incorrect. - Tess Wandia
In March 2025, the statistics bureau, which gets its production data from the tea board, reported that the total 2024 production was 598.47 million kilograms.
The deputy president's claim was mostly correct. - Tess Wandia
