A potential coup against President Mnangagwa offers little prospect of real change.
Zimbabwean President Emerson Mnangagwa came to power via military coup in 2017, when his longtime boss Robert Mugabe was ousted. With the armed forces' assistance, he has retained his office through two dubious elections. But lately, he seems worried about history repeating itself. In recent months he has replaced the head of the intelligence service, the chief of police, and the commander of the army in what appears to be a coup-proofing effort.
His impatient Vice President, Constantino Chiwenga, has long coveted the top spot. Chiwenga responded poorly to a trial balloon floated early this year proposing to amend the constitution in order to allow Mnangagwa a third term. Since then, disgruntled political elites and veterans of Zimbabwe's liberation struggle have turned on the president, proposing mass protests on March 31.
Mnangagwa's frenemies can tap into plenty of discontent; nearly two-thirds of Zimbabweans believe their country is going in the wrong direction, and the World Bank's data shows the poverty rate on a distressing, consistent upward slope. But there is little reason to believe that Chiwenga and his allies are interested in bringing about real change, given their record of violently suppressing political dissent. Instead, this faction would be likely to govern much like its predecessors, reserving lucrative opportunities for political and security elites while leaving the rest of the population to struggle--and to fear for their lives if they speak out.
When Mugabe fell, it was because warring factions in the ruling party were fiercely competing to succeed him. If a coup does occur, it's unlikely that Zimbabweans will celebrate the way they did in 2017--not because they love Mnangagwa, but because they have seen this film before. Political chicanery has gutted the opposition, and there is no real prospect of a different governing dispensation on the horizon. Military and party elites have been in charge for decades. If the tanks roll, it will mean a change of names and little more.
