TLDR

• Fuel prices are falling across Africa amid a sustained decline in global oil prices triggered by U.S. tariff hikes and an unexpected production increase from OPEC+ members
• Countries including Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, and South Africa have all announced cuts in gasoline and diesel prices over the past week
• Nigeria remains an exception. Prices there rose on April 2 as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company adjusted prices upward amid ongoing subsidy phaseouts

Fuel prices are falling across Africa amid a sustained decline in global oil prices triggered by U.S. tariff hikes and an unexpected production increase from OPEC+ members. Countries including Ivory Coast, Mali, Morocco, and South Africa have all announced cuts in gasoline and diesel prices over the past week.

In Ivory Coast, fuel prices dropped for the first time since 2020, with unleaded gasoline down to 855 CFA francs per liter and diesel to 700 CFA. Mali, Morocco, and South Africa also introduced adjustments following a near 7% fall in global oil prices since January.

The market downturn accelerated this week after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariff increases, raising concerns over a global slowdown. A day later, eight OPEC+ nations said they would increase output beyond earlier targets, fueling oversupply concerns. Nigeria remains an exception. Prices there rose on April 2 as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company adjusted prices upward amid ongoing subsidy phaseouts and a refining standoff with Dangote's refinery project.

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Key Takeaways

The double shock of U.S. trade protectionism and expanded OPEC+ output has driven oil prices to their lowest levels in over a year, leading to fuel price relief in many African countries. For nations with regulated fuel pricing, such as Ivory Coast and Mali, the cuts arrive months after initial crude declines. In liberalized or semi-liberalized markets like South Africa and Morocco, changes take effect more quickly. Lower fuel prices may offer temporary relief from inflation and transport costs, but benefits remain uneven. Nigeria illustrates the limits of this trend: despite being Africa's largest oil producer, the country's lack of domestic refining capacity and the removal of subsidies continue to drive prices higher. As global conditions remain fluid, African policymakers must navigate the dual challenge of volatile oil markets and domestic fiscal constraints. In the short term, reduced pump prices may ease economic pressure--but longer-term effects will depend on structural energy reforms.