The planned return of former Democratic Republic of Congo president Joseph Kabila from self-imposed exile could shift political dynamics and complicate efforts to resolve escalating violence in the country's east, analysts say.
Kabila this week announced his intention to leave South Africa, where he has been exiled since December 2023, and address the deteriorating security situation in eastern DRC.
His return comes amid accusations from President Felix Tshisekedi that Kabila supports the AFC/M23 rebels responsible for recent military advances, including capturing key cities Bukavu and Goma.
"After six years of total silence and given the worsening security situation, I have resolved to return home without delay to help find a solution," Kabila wrote on Tuesday. "I have decided to begin with the eastern region, where there is danger at hand."
In recent months, Kabila has been unusually outspoken about the DRC conflict, breaking his usual silence since stepping down in 2019. In February, he authored an opinion piece in South Africa's Sunday Times, arguing the "DRC crisis needs more than a military solution".
Political analyst Michael Tshibangu told RFI that Kabila's recent activities signal his intent to become more politically involved.
"It is clear that he is stepping up to play a more active political role. But he has not put all his cards on the table. In typical Kabila fashion, he has maintained an element of mystery as to what his real political objectives are," Tshibangu said.
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Meeting regional leaders
Kabila, who is currently writing a thesis at the University of Johannesburg and spending time in Namibia and Zimbabwe, has reportedly held meetings with regional and international figures involved in the conflict.
"Kabila met with representatives from Rwanda, Uganda and regional countries. He is trying to position himself as a credible alternative to President Felix Tshisekedi who is not currently enjoying good relations with DRC's neighbours," said Fred Bauma, of the Ebuteli research institute.
"However, he will really have to convince them of his good will and capacity to be part of the solution. But that's far from being a done deal."
Kabila has also reached out to Congolese opposition politicians exiled in Europe, holding meetings with opposition leaders Moise Katumbi and Claudel Lubaya in Addis Ababa last December.
"He is attempting to restructure the political opposition in DRC and may well be positioning himself to take the lead role with the support of various parties," said Bob Kabamba, political science lecturer at Liege University in Belgium.
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Tshibangu noted that Kabila's announcement to return comes at a politically sensitive time, as President Tshisekedi appears weakened amid military setbacks.
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Vast territory
Kabila did not specify exactly when or where he intends to arrive in eastern DRC, prompting speculation and caution from observers.
"The east of DRC is such a vast territory and he did not say that he will go to the areas controlled by the AFC/M23 rebels," said Tshibangu.
Tshisekedi has accused Kabila of sponsoring the AFC/M23 rebels, led by Corneille Nangaa, former president of DRC's independent national electoral commission and an ally of Kabila.
Kabila strongly denies these accusations and has publicly challenged Tshisekedi to provide evidence.
"This could explain why he prefers not to go to Kinshasa, the capital city, first. Unless the government gives him assurances that he will not be arrested," Tshibangu said.
