President Samia's quest for a mandate may lead to a pyrrhic victory.
Just over two years ago, in March 2023, United States Vice President Kamala Harris visited Tanzania. There, she was warmly received by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who had ascended to the presidency after the death of the autocratic John Magufuli. President Samia described the United States as "an important partner in our pursuit for democracy and good governance." Vice President Harris noted how President Samia had opened political space in the country, calling her "a champion of democratic reforms."
What a difference a couple of years makes. As Tanzania approaches its October elections, a major opposition leader, Tundu Lissu, has been arrested and charged with treason. His party, Chadema, has been banned from participating in elections until 2030. The country has seen a spike in abductions and arrests, crackdowns on media--all of it signaling that the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party cannot tolerate any threat to its power. Ironically, the rules were already stacked heavily in the CCM's favor. Lissu's entire platform was about demanding reforms to electoral processes and the Tanzanian constitution. The politics, too, favored the ruling party, after a bruising leadership struggle within Chadema.
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Now, Tanzania appears to be headed toward an election with a foregone, engineered conclusion. President Samia may get her own historic mandate, and perhaps will attempt to restart her reform agenda, but the circumstances of her own ascendence will undermine that effort. If the rules can be tossed aside or manipulated to protect the regime, they are not rules at all--they are whims. Reforms can be unleashed or rolled back as power demands.
It's all very of the moment. As the United States shuts down the National Endowment for Democracy, the International Republican Institute, and the National Democratic Institute, and itself slides into lawless authoritarianism with shocking speed, it is difficult to imagine much in the way of a reaction from Washington. China has long supported CCM dominance. India shows no signs of championing democratic values abroad as it, too, sees an erosion of rights and freedoms at home. The African Union and its member states have shown no appetite for interpreting the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance as requiring anything more than electoral window dressing. African populations, including Tanzanians, have consistently expressed a desire for democratic governance. They also regularly voice frustration with "elections" that do not meaningfully allow citizens to hold political elites accountable. No one seems to be listening.
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