Dynamics on the ground in eastern DRC and the country's capital will test Qatar's mediation efforts.
Dynamics on the ground in eastern DRC and the country's capital will test Qatar's mediation efforts.
On 23 April 2025, delegations from Kinshasa and rebel group M23's political affiliate, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), declared their intent to work towards a ceasefire and continue discussions on the root causes of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) conflict. The truce was brokered by Qatar, which started negotiations in March.
The direct talks between M23 and DRC -- which Kinshasa had consistently refused -- and the joint declaration are positive steps. But they unfold against an increasingly fragile political landscape in Kinshasa, as President Félix Tshisekedi's reputation suffers and opposition forces use the rebellion to gain political ground.
M23's significant territorial expansion in recent months poses a growing threat to stability in the DRC. After capturing key cities like Goma and Bukavu, the rebel group has established a parallel administration in areas under its control.
Kinshasa has also lost most of its external military allies after the withdrawal of Southern African Development Community forces, Burundian troops and private security contractors. The government's position is now dire, as it relies on local armed groups as the main resistance against M23.
Across the...
