South Africa's Eskom Sees Low Power-Cut Risk Over Next Four Months

9 May 2025
Daba Finance (Abidjan)

TLDR

  • South African state utility Eskom said on Monday it expects no power cuts through the southern hemisphere winter, ending August 2025
  • The company's baseline scenario forecasts a stable power supply, following improved plant performance over the past year.
  • The utility recorded no electricity cuts for nine months last year, including during winter, a significant improvement

South African state utility Eskom said on Monday it expects no power cuts through the southern hemisphere winter, ending August 2025, if unplanned outages remain below 13,000 megawatts. The company's baseline scenario forecasts a stable power supply, following improved plant performance over the past year.

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane told reporters that if breakdowns increase to 14,000 MW, there could be a single day of outages, and up to 21 days if they rise to 15,000 MW. Eskom currently has over 46,000 MW in nominal generation capacity, primarily from coal, with additional supply from nuclear, diesel, and hydropower sources.

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The utility recorded no electricity cuts for nine months last year, including during winter, a significant improvement after over a decade of power supply instability that has weighed on economic growth.

Marokane acknowledged 14 days of load-shedding earlier in 2025 but said this was a temporary setback, emphasizing continued progress in operational performance.

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Key Takeaways

Eskom's improved reliability marks a shift from previous years of persistent power cuts that constrained South Africa's economy and damaged investor confidence. Load-shedding--planned electricity outages--had become routine due to aging infrastructure, maintenance backlogs, and financial distress. The utility's current stability is attributed to better maintenance planning, improved plant efficiency, and lower-than-expected unplanned breakdowns. While risks remain, particularly in the face of winter demand surges, Eskom's base case suggests the country may be entering a more stable energy period. However, the system remains heavily dependent on coal, exposing it to operational and environmental risks. Long-term reforms and diversification toward renewable energy remain key to securing sustainable supply. For now, Eskom's winter forecast signals relief for households, businesses, and the broader economy.

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