IN the forthcoming days, particularly throughout the general election season for October 2025, it is probable that numerous social scientists and political enthusiasts will concur with my perspective on the political parties that, by the stipulations established by the Registrar of Political Parties in Tanzania, are permitted to pursue their political aims and remain faithful to their foundational principles.
Defections, party switches, resignations and new party memberships will all occur during the same season. Is it possible to read those involved as acts of patriotism, selfishness, or some other motive? That is an important subject to consider, given that any move has an outcome.
The phenomenon of shifting allegiance extends beyond Tanzania and encompasses our entire region. Defecting or resigning from one's party position to join another political party, or contemplating joining other parties, has become so commonplace that it raises many questions about what motivates an individual to shift their allegiances. Is it patriotism, or self-interest?
In May 2025, I had the privilege of attending one of our budget Bunge sessions in Dodoma, Tanzania. Outside the Bunge buildings, I had the opportunity to engage in conversation with a senior politician.
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A compelling notion surfaced in our conversation that in the realm of politics, one finds neither everlasting allies nor unchanging adversaries. I learned that the ultimate end of a politician's interests is timeless and enduring.
As I reflected on our discussion afterwards, I promptly recalled a book I encountered at the London School of Economics in 2001 while pursuing a Phd degree programme in economics in the United Kingdom.
In brief, the historical context established by Henry John Temple (Lord Palmerston), who held the title of 3rd Viscount, the fourth rank within the British peerage system and served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on two occasions, from 1855 to 1858 and again from 1859 to 1865, views came to light in my mind. Henry John Temple's address was presented in the House of Commons on 1 March 1848.
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From that address emerged a phrase now widely recognised in the complex arena of international relations: 'No permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests.' It seems to me that the former Lord Palmerston agreed with the idea that, in our interactions with politicians, it is essential to recognise that they are aligned with particular interests, which is an inherent aspect of their roles.
Based on such thinking, what interests do Tanzanian politicians uphold and safeguard as the nation approaches the general election in October 2025?
The act of party switching or defection among politicians presents a multifaceted phenomenon that exhibits considerable variation across different countries and jurisdictions.
East Africa, as a developing democracy, is not immune to the spatial and temporal dynamics of carpet crossing.
I am open to correction, yet I hold the view that a limited number of political candidates truly engage in public service with a sincere commitment to the welfare of the populace. Observing the evolving dynamics within certain political parties in the EAC regional bloc, it becomes evident that a pronounced emphasis on individualism characterises the prevailing discourse.
The frequency with which Tanzanian politicians change their party affiliations is not merely frustrating but also indicative of a lack of accountability and prudence that could be interpreted as expressions of patriotism, self-interest, or perhaps other motivations.
A handful of opposition politicians, who continue to uphold a sense of loyalty and dedication to their party, have subtly suggested their endorsement of the rival party's vision, citing the commendable performance of the latter. Concurrently, they persist in embracing the banner of their opposing party. The tumultuous winds of dissent continue to swirl. By the conclusion of the tumultuous hurricane, it will remain uncertain to which faction those transitioning from one party to another will ultimately align.
As President Dr Samia dissolves the final parliament in the coming months in anticipation of the preparations for the October 2025 elections, numerous Tanzanians will observe the remarkable degree to which politicians engage in competition and party-switching, all in pursuit of electoral opportunities and the chance to reclaim their seats in parliament.
In various contexts globally, the ideological distinctions among political parties often appear subtle and indistinct. Based on my understanding, in Tanzania, politicians do not change parties due to ideological considerations. They betray with reckless abandon, driven by self-serving interests and the desire to maintain their dominance, enjoying unrestricted access to the riches at the core.
This represents a mode of existence rooted in political principles. However, this misconduct is not unique to Tanzania alone. Party switching is prevalent, as politicians often align themselves with the party that best aligns with their preferences. During the legislative term from 1996 to 2001, approximately 25 per cent of the members of the Italian Chamber of Deputies changed their party affiliation.
Throughout five decades, from 1947 to 1997, the US Congress experienced only 20 instances of party switching within both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Over 31 years, from 1994 to the present, there have been 191 instances of state legislators changing their party affiliation at the state level.
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During the general elections in India in 1967 and 1971, nearly half of the 4,000 legislators elected to central and federal parliaments engaged in significant defections, resulting in considerable political turmoil within the nation.
The country endured a prolonged period of approximately 14 years before the situation was rectified. In 1985, India enacted the Anti-Defection Act, a legislative measure that permits the disqualification of lawmakers who change their party affiliation without sound reasoning or legal grounds.
As I am not a legal expert, could you inform me if there exists any legislation in Tanzania that restricts defection? Is there a stipulation in the Tanzanian constitution that is explicit in its wording yet ambiguous in its interpretation? In Tanzania, like in many other democracies, the phenomenon of political defection-where a politician changes their allegiance from one party to another arises from a complex interplay of personal motivations, strategic considerations and systemic influences.
Through a thorough analysis of the political dynamics among parties in Tanzania, it is evident that the motivations for defection are predominantly influenced by factors related to political survival and the pursuit of opportunities.
In this scenario, it is typical for politicians to realign their loyalties with the party of their choice to maintain their influence, secure developmental projects for their constituencies, or avoid the potential of being marginalised.
Nonetheless, discrepancies with the party leadership, disagreements regarding policy, internal strife, a lack of democratic procedures, or ideological rifts may drive members to seek a more aligned association with a different party.
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Nonetheless, my investigation suggests that certain politicians may alter their party allegiance when they discern a more favourable prospect for electoral success or to secure nominations in various circumstances. Defection frequently occurs when a politician is disregarded for a leadership position or nomination within their original party, leading them to seek such opportunities in alternative venues.
Furthermore, the impact of state influence exhibited through legal threats, incentives, or coercion can be substantial, especially when the ruling party seeks to secure constituents whom opposing forces have swayed. In Tanzania, political defections often arise from strategic considerations and the instinct for self-preservation, rather than ideological commitments or the public's welfare.
In a multiparty system, although legal, unregulated defections have the potential to erode democratic institutions, weaken the opposition and erode voter trust in the political framework.
To tackle this challenge, it may be essential in the future to implement more robust legal frameworks, initiate internal party reforms and enhance civic education to promote politics centred on issues and accountability, rather than just spatial and temporal dynamics of carpet crossing. Political immaturity and change, in my opinion, are demonstrated when politicians switch parties, resign from one party to join another and then begin to blame the party they left.
These actions leave only one question and present a different image of such a politician: is it self-interest or patriotism and the suffering of defending the nation?
The writer is an economistcum-investment banker and Daily News columnist.
