Khartoum — Is Sudan heading toward a de facto partition? This is the question several regional analysts are asking following the takeover of the so-called "border triangle" between Sudan, Libya, and Egypt by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.

According to the regular armed forces (Sudan Armed Forces, SAF) under the command of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the RSF's conquest of the tri-border area was facilitated by the help of General Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), the Benghazi-based Libyan faction that controls Cyrenaica and opposes the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Control of this important border region between Sudan and Libya makes it possible to manage legal and illegal trade (especially gold) and to supply RSF troops across the Libyan border. After being expelled from the capital Khartoum, the RSF leadership intends to concentrate its forces in western Sudan, in Darfur and Kordofan (see Fides, 11/6/2025). By creating a secure supply and trade route, Dagalo aims to establish its own administration in its stronghold of Darfur. In recent months, Dagalo has already announced the formation of an alternative government to the one led by General al-Burhan (see Fides, 19/2/2025 and Fides 16/4/2025).

The conflict between Sudanese factions has also taken on an ideological and international dimension. To help the RSF control the tri-border area, General Haftar has deployed the "Subul al-Salam" brigade, an armed Salafist group that opposes the political Islam represented by the Muslim Brotherhood. This trend is frowned upon by the United Arab Emirates, which has supported both Haftar and the RSF. In its strategy to curb the Muslim Brotherhood, the Emirates appears willing to ally, albeit indirectly, with Salafi groups with strong tribal roots, such as the Subul al-Salam Brigade, made up of members of the Zuwaya tribe. The SAF, under the leadership of General Buran, was able to recapture Khartoum and other areas largely thanks to the newly formed 'Hunter Force', a special elite unit composed, among others, of Islamist elements with links to the Muslim Brotherhood. The external influences in the Sudanese civil war are finally demonstrated by the "drone war" (see Fides, 16/5/2025), in which the RSF uses armed Chinese-made drones supplied by the Emirates, as well as Turkish army drones supplied by Ankara, which supports General Buran.