Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael on the importance and regional repercussions of the latest paramilitary advance
Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have seized control of the strategic Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle, which serves as a trade and smuggling nexus, as well as a corridor connecting Darfur to northern Sudan and a gateway to Libya and Egypt. The victory marked the latest advance by the RSF, which has since April responded to losing the capital Khartoum to the Sudanese army by capturing a series of predominantly military sites across North Darfur as the country's civil war grinds on.
These latest gains have consolidated the paramilitary force's grip on Sudan's north-western frontier, pushing the army out of territory it had held for more than a year and providing the RSF with access to a long, porous border. The access means safe passage for resupply and reinforcement, especially from Libya, while also opening a new front from which the RSF could embark on offensives toward the Nile Valley and Northern state, which are considered army heartlands.
As a result, this latest conquest could mark the start of a RSF push into regions that have so far seen limited fighting, forcing the army to redirect resources to areas from which many senior officers hail. Momentum has swung back and forth in the war, with the RSF suffering a major blow when the army retook Khartoum. In May, the RSF responded by sending a barrage of drones toward the wartime capital Port Sudan.
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Control of the tri-border region has become critical for the RSF as it seeks to reduce reliance on supplies from Chad. Heightened international scrutiny and pressure on N'Djamena have made the Um Jarras corridor from Chad to Darfur less viable. Sudanese army airstrikes on Nyala airport, the RSF's primary delivery point for weapons, have also frustrated use of this route. Instead, reports of increased air traffic into the south-eastern Libyan district of Kufra, allegedly from the United Arab Emirates, suggest Emirati support is now being rerouted - making control of the north-western frontier essential to the RSF.
The RSF's advance brings with it major implications for the region. The Subul El Salam Battalion, affiliated with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar's forces in Libya, has been accused by the Sudanese army of supporting the offensive. While the battalion's commander claimed any engagement was accidental during routine patrols, and Haftar's command denied any involvement in Sudan's war, his forces, reportedly also backed by the UAE, are widely believed to have helped the RSF smuggle fuel and weapons into Sudan. If Haftar-aligned forces continue backing the RSF, supporters of the army may be inclined to step up, too. Egypt, which supports Haftar in Libya but is a key Sudanese army ally, faces a dilemma as the RSF approaches its southern border. Türkiye, which is officially aligned with Libya's Tripoli government but also enjoys informal ties with the Haftar-led forces, backs the army and is likely to expand its support.
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With foreign powers getting drawn further into Sudan amid a complex mesh of alliances, the risks that the war's shock waves will carry across the Red Sea region are heightening.
