• Eskom says breakdowns have already passed the danger mark and have already reached higher than last year's average.

• The power utility spent R4.76-billion on diesel so far this year and warned against illegal connections causing major outages.

Eskom has warned that South Africa could face 21 days of stage 2 load shedding this winter if power station breakdowns keep climbing.

The power utility said the situation could turn quickly if breakdowns go past the 13,000 megawatt limit. On 26 June, breakdowns hit 15,137 megawatts, already over the danger line.

That includes 800 megawatts from Medupi unit 4, which has been offline since 2021.

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Despite the rising breakdowns, Eskom said the system is still stable. On the night of 26 June, it had 30,703 megawatts available to meet a demand of 28,810 megawatts.

Breakdowns are much worse than last year. Between 20 and 26 June, they averaged 14,696 megawatts, nearly 3,000 more than the same week in 2023.

Eskom blamed part of the problem on the long delay in fixing Medupi Unit 4.

Theft and vandalism are also hurting the grid. Eskom lost R221-million to criminal activity from April to February. That's slightly less than the R271-million lost the year before.

The utility praised police for arresting six people in April who were caught stealing property worth R1.5-million. They appeared in court on 7 April.

Eskom urged people to avoid illegal connections, which often blow transformers and cause serious blackouts.

Planned maintenance dropped slightly in June, which helped improve plant availability.

But the energy availability factor for the year is only 58.47%, worse than last year.

To keep the lights on, Eskom burned through R4.76-billion worth of diesel this year to power its gas turbines.