Few countries have the capacity to defend themselves against external forces. The Horn countries, therefore, have to look for guidance on what to do and how to devote time and resources to achieve all types of external guidance. This guidance emanates from those financial institutions located and operating in the developed countries.
Experts point out that it means nothing to weak power holders who just wait for external guidance. Experts reveal that ignoring research on geopolitics countries in the Horn region have become susceptible to external manipulators. This event will definitely continue if there is no change that may confront external agents.
If the region continues to be dependent on alien powers on various issues, it will be incapacitated to determine its future. Thus, countries of the Horn tended to repeatedly fail to fulfill their duties to the regional financial agencies. In some cases, these countries do not expect other entities to pay their debts. They, therefore, end up begging for "aid" from global donors or "development partners" that enjoy putting severe conditions.
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The Horn countries, however, would be "forced" to prepare development projects instantly as they do not have visionary long-term plans during conflicts. Yet, the planners have the capacity to forecast the dangers, see opportunities, and instill confidence in their countries. The Horn countries, including Ethiopia, tend to follow socioeconomic guidelines designed by external financial institutions, which intend to spread conflicts. This leads the Horn countries to several clusters of conflicts which are both distinct and similar. These conflicts are within the Horn region and are guided by the search for a common identity. This has become difficult to achieve as the peoples in each country of the Horn refuse to be united.
Experts point out that the artificiality of the borders is reinforced by having common people who live in two or more states of the Horn. They often do not recognize those borders. Each country, therefore, has the problem of acceptability within itself, within the Horn, and within the continent of Africa.
The Horn region has its distinctive attraction to the global powers because of its strategic location. These powers have intentions for controlling access to the region's resources. It links different continents through the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Mediterranean Sea. The challenge, however, is whether the countries of the Horn have distinct, similar, and positive prospects to advance their interests.
Generally, they started badly due to disasters such as droughts, floods, and contagious diseases. Also, experts point out that power rivalries, envy, and suspicions within the Horn are factors that contribute to difficulties. These difficulties may lead to unhappy and miserable situations in the region and the countries in it. The region is filled with promises in terms of natural wealth and it is of strategic interest mainly to global forces. However, it suffers multiple conflicts within each country, including Ethiopia, and across the various countries.
The Horn countries, particularly Ethiopia hosts the AU institutions that should promote regional peace and economic growth. But, the Horn region enjoys neither peace nor development mainly because of interrelated factors. There is, for example, intense rivalry, envy, and competition that negate cooperation. Also, problems of acceptability, internal conflicts and frictions with neighboring countries deter peace and security in the region. Studies reveal that people in the Horn region, particularly those at the borders, refuse to identify with the government of the country in which they live.
Consequently, their loyalty to the given state "disappears or it never existed." In this situation, there are people at the border whose citizenship loyalty is not guaranteed. There is, therefore, a need to link loyalty of the people through development cooperation and aid or assistance. Thus, aid becomes an instrument for geopolitical power and turning states into proxies. But, aid increases dependency that perpetuates regional instability at the Horn.
Turning the countries of the Horn into "proxies" to advance global power goals might be detrimental to the long-term interests of the regional states. This is likely to increase the means trouble with the Horn region. Some countries of the Horn suffer from the convergence of political problems to the detriment of the countries of the region. This started viciously at independence with irredentist aspirations of grabbing the territories of neighboring countries.
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A few countries of the Horn were fragmented into autonomous and feuding warlord-led territories. These attracted external attention which included terror organizations. Some of the leaders of these organizations took refuge in independent neighboring countries. Some of the escapees returned to their country as "citizens" of Western countries to serve in government and become proxies in regional power politics.
The discovery of the immense amount of natural resources made these citizens very useful in provoking border confrontation between neighboring countries. They caused the divisions of the countries of the Horn. Supported by global powers that look after the rich natural resources of the Horn, the countries of the region, including Ethiopia, have been engaged in internecine wars, skirmishes and conflicts. The ultimate beneficiaries have been the external global powers. However, Ethiopia has the historic resilience against foreign incursions that intend to dismember it and its heroic people.
