Addis Abeba — Once hailed for its rapid economic growth and growing regional influence, Ethiopia now finds itself in the midst of a deepening crisis. Armed conflicts, a worsening humanitarian emergency, and persistent political instability are placing the country's unity under severe strain. The government's continued reliance on military responses to long-standing political grievances has turned Ethiopia into a volatile landscape of conflict. The International Crisis Group has even issued a stark caution, suggesting an impending disintegration that could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.
Although the 2022 Pretoria Agreement formally brought an end to the devastating war in Tigray, its implementation has been inconsistent and incomplete. Eritrean forces remain in parts of the region, with credible reports of continued human rights abuses. In Western Tigray, allegations of ethnic cleansing persist, preventing displaced families from returning to their homes. Meanwhile, there has been no meaningful prosecution of those responsible for wartime atrocities, further entrenching public grievances. Despite extensive evidence of mass killings, sexual violence, and starvation used as a weapon of war, accountability remains entirely absent.
Government officials continue to affirm their commitment to peace, often citing logistical and political obstacles. Yet bad-faith actors--both domestic and foreign--continue to destabilize the process. This is not peace; it is institutionalized brutality under the guise of diplomacy. The international community's silence in the face of such impunity has emboldened perpetrators and set a dangerous precedent for future conflicts.
Trapped in cycles of violence
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As Ethiopia faces the daunting task of reconstruction, the specter of another conflict looms--this time with the Tigray region once again at the center. In his recent address to lawmakers last week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called on religious leaders across Ethiopia to urgently intervene and help prevent a renewed escalation of conflict in the Tigray region. He warned that any attempts to speak out after the outbreak of war would be meaningless. "You have no other work. Immediately start your work now to prevent Tigray from entering conflict, from entering war; it will be worthless if you speak after it begins," he urged.
Late last week, Ethiopia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Gedion Timothewos, also issued a strong diplomatic appeal to U.S. Secretary of State Marco A. Rubio, accusing Eritrea of "unrelenting cooperation and coordination between a faction of the TPLF" and "other armed groups under their tutelage to undertake major offensive operations during the upcoming rainy season."
In his letter dated 20 June, 2025, Foreign Minister Gedion also alleged that Eritrea has engaged in "repeated provocations," "territorial occupation," and the sponsorship of armed groups aimed at destabilizing Ethiopia. He warned that such actions represent "a flagrant violation of international law" and risk dismantling the fragile peace and security in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia's recent diplomatic appeal comes a week after Eritrea's Ministry of Information dismissed the letter's contents as "a transparent ploy" to justify what it described as a "long-brewing war agenda." The Ministry accused Ethiopia of "provocative saber-rattling," claiming the government seeks access to Eritrean ports "legally if possible and militarily if necessary." It further accused the Prosperity Party-led administration of embarking on "a weapons purchasing spree" while undermining regional stability, despite what it characterized as Eritrea's "maximum restraint."
Renewed tensions resurge over Tigray at a time when the armed conflict in the Amhara region has escalated at an alarming rate. Since August 2023, Amhara has faced a series of crises, having become the focal point of an increasingly militarized confrontation between government forces and various factions of the Fano armed groups. This conflict--now spanning large parts of the region--continues to result in civilian casualties.
Reports reveal that military operations in Amhara have employed tactics that amount to collective punishment of the civilian population. Widespread mass arrests, extrajudicial killings, and media blackouts have contributed to the transformation of the region into a heavily militarized zone. In its quarterly report released in January 2025, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) documented extensive extrajudicial killings, including those of pregnant women and children, amid the ongoing conflict in the Amhara region.
Unless the conflicts in Amhara and Oromia are effectively addressed and a renewed war in Tigray is averted, these crises collectively threaten to accelerate the fragmentation of Ethiopia's federal system."
Violence has also gripped the Oromia region. In particular, Western Oromia has experienced an enduring conflict involving government forces and armed groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and Fano, a non-state militia from the neighboring Amhara region. This conflict has resulted in extensive displacement and severe socioeconomic consequences. Districts within the North Shewa Zone of the Oromia region have also become hotspots of conflict, with the Darra district, in particular, enduring waves of violence between government forces and armed groups operating in both the neighboring Amhara and Oromia regional states.
The Oromo Liberation Army has evolved into a significant insurgent force in Oromia, drawing momentum from long-standing grievances related to political exclusion and land dispossession. A second round of peace talks--initially launched with the hope of resolving the five-year militarized conflict between the OLA and government forces--officially collapsed without agreement in November 2023. The failure of the negotiations exposed the reluctance of both sides to pursue a peaceful resolution, instead opting for continued warfare--a course that portends only further bloodshed.
Diplomacy over destabilization
Unless the conflicts in Amhara and Oromia are effectively addressed and a renewed war in Tigray is averted, these crises collectively threaten to accelerate the fragmentation of Ethiopia's federal system.
The peace initiative launched by the National Dialogue Commission has largely failed to achieve meaningful progress, primarily due to the deliberate exclusion of key armed groups such as the OLA, Fano, and political and military leaders from Tigray. Suppressed opposition parties and independent civil society actors have also been sidelined. By selectively choosing participants and narrowly framing the scope of discussion, the Commission has reduced the reconciliation process to little more than political theater. Without genuine inclusivity, this initiative risks further deepening national disillusionment.
Amid ongoing conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions and the threat of renewed war in Tigray, Ethiopia's humanitarian crisis has reached an alarming level. More than 20 million people are in urgent need of emergency food assistance, many of whom remain trapped in active conflict zones. Over 3.3 million individuals have been internally displaced, now living in overcrowded camps with limited access to essential aid. A report released in March 2025 by the Global Nutrition Cluster also reveals that acute malnutrition rates in several regions have "surpassed the critical threshold of 15%," signaling an urgent and dire situation. Additionally, more than nine million children are currently out of school due to conflict, violence, natural disasters, and displacement, with over 6,000 schools remaining closed. Despite the severity of the crisis, international humanitarian support has fallen short--hampered by donor fatigue, competing global emergencies, and bureaucratic hurdles that continue to obstruct the delivery of aid to those in greatest need.
The international community's inaction has largely failed to address the escalating crisis in Ethiopia. The African Union, despite being headquartered in Addis Ababa, has not enforced its own peace agreements. The United Nations Security Council remains paralyzed by geopolitical divisions, unable to take meaningful action. Meanwhile, Western donors continue to fund the Ethiopian government despite well-documented atrocities, placing greater emphasis on counterterrorism and migration control than on the protection of human rights.
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Despite the severity of the crisis, Ethiopia still has an opportunity to reverse course. An immediate ceasefire, overseen by the United Nations or the African Union, is essential to halt the violence in Amhara and Oromia. At the same time, sustained international diplomatic pressure is necessary to ensure the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopian territory.
Comprehensive negotiations involving all political and armed groups are crucial to addressing the structural drivers of conflict. Humanitarian corridors must be fully reopened, and international donor support significantly increased to avert further deepening of poverty. A South Africa-style Truth and Reconciliation Commission is critical for confronting wartime atrocities and rebuilding public trust. Additionally, constitutional reforms are needed to establish a more equitable framework for power-sharing. Finally, strengthened regional diplomacy with neighboring countries is vital to prevent proxy conflicts and safeguard the stability of the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia's crisis transcends a national tragedy; it serves as a critical test of global governance, African solidarity, and international accountability. Without decisive intervention, the consequences could reverberate across the entire region, threatening broader stability. Yet, hope remains. If Ethiopians, alongside their international partners, commit to inclusive politics, justice, and lasting peace, the nation can recover and reclaim its role as a regional leader.
The choice is clear: either accept continued failure and suffering or seize this opportunity for peace and recovery. The moment for bold, coordinated action is now. AS
Editor's Note: Adam Daud Ahmed, a Horn of Africa political and security analyst in Hargeisa, Somaliland, specializes in geopolitics, counterterrorism, and democratization. He holds a master's degree in international relations and can be reached at [email protected].
