The green economy strategy has the objective of keeping economic growth and development on the right track in view of the variability of climate in Ethiopia. Experts contend that addressing current and future climate vulnerabilities in development planning and programming is crucial. In other words, mainstreaming of climate change adaptation should be an immediate priority for Ethiopia.
Adaptation to climate change is an important strategy of survival. One area of adaptation is managing the growth rate of the population in relation to climate change risks in Ethiopia. Thus, development without due consideration of climate risks will lead to weakening of national resilience to climate change in the country. Experts appreciate Ethiopia's efforts to respond to the effects of climate change by applying policies on population and development. However, the implementation of these policies is obstructed by various challenges. There is, therefore, a need to mitigate the impacts of climate change using adaptation strategies in Ethiopia.
Given the range of negative effects of climate on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods, there is a need to ensure a sustainable survival strategy. In this respect, the implications of climate change must be taken into account to ensure the survival of these communities. This requires a deep analysis of how the climate has already changed in the past decades.
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According to the UNDP Climate Change Profile for Ethiopia, the mean annual temperature has increased. It is also reported that the average number of hot days and nights per year has increased, causing emissions. Much of the emission is attributed to the agriculture sector, in which livestock farming contributed the most.
The dominant position of livestock farming in Ethiopia's economy also influences the relative contribution of agriculture to the total emissions. Agriculture confronts many adverse impacts, which are manifestations of variable climate. Experts pointed out that there are indications of the continuing impacts of climate change that will influence the socio-economic activities of the Ethiopian communities.
The different parts of Ethiopia have repeatedly faced increased frequency of drought, famines and outbreaks of diseases which are believed to be linked with climatic changes. The droughts have highly affected the agriculture of the country and caused loss of crops, animals and people. Flood hazards have increased in the country in recent years, causing destruction of crops and animals as well as human lives.
Studies have shown that the agriculture sector in Ethiopian is the most vulnerable to climate changes. Experts have made an integrated vulnerability assessment in the regions by using social vulnerability indicators. These assessments have revealed that decline in precipitation and increase in temperature are both damaging to the Ethiopian agriculture. These indicators were used to assess the changes in CO2 concentration, precipitation, and temperature in various regions of the country. Using these indicators, experts could estimate the changes in production or yield in major crops. The indicators of yield have shown reductions in yield due to lack of available water, or due to the excess supply of water that causes water logging.
Minimizing effects of climate change is "significant but variable" over regions and crop type. This variability tends to grow stronger in time, leading to frequent occurrences of droughts in some regions. The effect of climate change on yields triggers direct and indirect economic impacts. These effects are reflected in the reductions in income, employment, savings, and investments in developing countries, including Ethiopia. These effects have their own cycle of outcomes and consequences.
The lower the income, the lesser the demand for goods and services, which in turn leads to a lower supply of consumer goods. With a reduction in supply, producers would be forced to curb output and dismiss or suspend or lay off their workers. These workers will be subjected to lesser wages and incomes, thereby reducing their demand for basic goods and services. In this kind of economic situation, investors tend to reduce output or close their enterprises. These are just some of the open effects of climate change on enterprises in the industry sector.
The effect of climate change on the agricultural sector is very crucial. It affects the quantity and quality of the various crops grown in the developing countries. Studies that have investigated impacts of climate change in Ethiopia have identified that the climate variables have significant effects on crop revenue per hectare of land.
Experts also found that marginally increasing "seasonal rainfall" would significantly increase crop revenue per hectare. But, a rise in "seasonal temperature" would significantly reduce crop revenue per hectare. The analyses of impacts of climate change show that there would be a reduction in crop revenue per hectare in the coming several decades. These analyses also suggest that the damage that would be caused by climate change will increase with time unless it is controlled through adaptation efforts. The analyses also indicate that the impact of climate change on revenue is not uniformly distributed across the different agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia. The studies focused on the effects of climate change on crops with the goal of "minimizing their impacts."
Closely linked with minimizing effects of climate change is the availability of water resources. While availability of water for crop production is the major challenge, there are also challenges posed by declining farm sizes, natural resource degradation and increases in crop pests. Climate variability, including droughts had serious effects on Ethiopia over the past decade, leading to an increase in agricultural losses and human sufferings. This has placed the country in a situation of critical food insecurity and water shortages.
Shortages of water have direct effect on livestock production in Ethiopia. Though the direct impacts of stressful heat on livestock have not been extensively studied, experts insist that warming affects the feed intake, mortality, reproduction, and maintenance of animals. Generally, these effects are expected to have negative impacts on livestock productivity in Ethiopia. Studies reveal that chickens are particularly vulnerable to climate change. They can only tolerate narrow ranges of temperatures beyond which reproduction and growth are negatively affected. Also, increases in temperature caused by climate change can be worsened within poultry housing networks.
Prolonged drought has led to the loss of livestock assets, and it has become difficult to restock. Usually during drought, as the animals have less access to pasture and become weak, they are more susceptible to different diseases when they are concentrated around a few water points. Studies show that decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both affect livestock in the country.
Years of decrease in rainfall, increase in drought and famine are associated with very low contributions of agriculture to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ethiopia. Because of irregular rainfall and droughts the country is experiencing deficits in food production in some regions of the country. These natural events are likely to increase aridity and a decrease in precipitation.
The shortage of water which is supposed to occur due to climate change will severely affect the already water stressed lowland regions. Consequently, agricultural activities may no longer be successful in these regions. The shortage of food has become a major bottleneck for millions of households in several parts of Ethiopia due to the repeated drought cycles and disparity in rainfall.
There are external factors that raise the supply of food in Ethiopia. One of these factors is the donor agency that provides food aid to the affected regions of the country. It has been observed that when the rainy seasons are normal the amount of "food aid" decreases and vice versa. Apart from the affected regions, agro-pastoral and pastoral households, which are reliant on livestock for their livelihoods, also suffer severe asset losses during droughts.
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Ethiopia is rich in water resources and basins, and it is considered to be the "water tower" of the Horn of Africa. But it has extremely limited water "storage capacity" that prevents the country from using these abundant water resources. Moreover, climate change is expected to reduce runoffs, and this has significant consequences on the flow of water for hydropower generation. Also, climate change is expected to lead to drying of wetlands with severe implications for key breeding sites of some bird species. Generally, the water resources sector will be affected by climate change due to a decrease in river runoff.
A decrease in water supply will cause a decline in energy production or hydropower. The variability in the quantity of water supply may affect the provision of hydropower. This is caused by discrepancy of the rainy season, which emanates from climate variability. As a result, the ecosystem, which is the source of rain and water resources, will be negatively affected. All these events lead to the scarcity of rainwater that would affect the aquatic life by deteriorating the quality and quantity of water bodies.
For instance, water insufficiency endangers the fish resource, which is the cheap source of protein. In general, development activities based on water will be negatively affected as a result of water deficiency. Studies reveal that warmer temperatures and variations in rainfall patterns associated with climate change alter the transmission mechanisms of waterborne diseases in Ethiopia.
The incidence of malaria and water-borne diseases, cholera, dysentery, etc. in the country is likely to become more prevalent. There is, therefore, a need for focusing on minimizing impacts of climate changes that threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of Ethiopians.
