Addis Abeba- The Tigray Regional Interim Administration (TIRA), established following the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) that brought an end to the bloody war in the Tigray region, was led by Getachew Reda for two years. Last April, Lieutenant General Tadesse Worede was appointed as president of the Interim Administration. Many viewed the transfer of power as a step that averted the risk of renewed conflict in the region. However, it seems the new leadership is not able to free the region from challenges and the threat of conflict.
One evidence for this is the recent exchange of fire in the Wajerat district of the region's southeastern zone. This clash occurred between Tigrayan security forces and armed groups calling themselves "Tigray Peace Forces," who had been training in the Afar region. Following this clash between the armed groups, civil society organizations operating in the region expressed their concern that the internal tension in Tigray could escalate into a civil conflict.
"Immediately start your work now to prevent Tigray from entering conflict, from entering war; it will be worthless if you speak after it begins" Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in his address to the Parliament on the 42nd regular session of the 6th House of People's Representatives on 03 July, 2025 urged all religious leaders in the country to "you have no other work. Immediately start your work now to prevent Tigray from entering conflict, from entering war; it will be worthless if you speak after it begins."
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The Prime Minister also called on investors, diplomats, scholars, and embassies to play proactive roles in averting conflict. "Because if it starts, it will not be what we knew before; things will deteriorate," he cautioned.
Speaking at Martyrs' Memorial Day in Abergele District in Central Tigray held on 06 July 2025 Dr. Debretsion Gebremichael, Chairperson of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), a party whose legal status was recently revoked by the Ethiopian National Election Board-- said "the Prosperity Party government and its agents are continuing to wage war against us."
"The propaganda of doom being repeated daily by the Prosperity Party government, the command post, and their allies -- claiming that you are collapsing -- along with the drumbeat of war threatening 'we will wipe you out tomorrow or the next day,' is something that must be closely monitored"
Debretsion stated, "War is not our choice." and called on the international community "to recognize their commitment to peace and to pressure the Prosperity Party government and its agents, who he said are preparing for war and stirring up conflict, to refrain from such actions and to uphold their responsibilities."
Furthermore, referring to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's recent remarks, the TPLF, in a statement issued on 05 July 2025, said, "There is no interest or preparation for war whatsoever on the part of Tigray. The people of Tigray deserve healing and reconstruction, not blame or warmongering."
The concern in the Tigray region is not only about the possibility of conflict between two rival factions or a confrontation with the federal government. There is also widespread fear that the ongoing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could once again turn the region into a battleground. Additionally, the delisting of the TPLF from political party status by the electoral board, and the current nature of its relationship with the federal government, has raised further concerns that the region may not remain free from the threat of renewed conflict.
These issues have become ongoing challenges for the region's Interim Administration, led by Lieutenant General Tadesse Worede. In addition to managing the aftermath of the two-year war, the unresolved situation of nearly one million displaced people and the issue western Tigray remain persistent and complex challenges for the administration.
These threats and challenges were present during the two-year tenure of Getachew Reda. The interim administration he led was often criticized as one where "unresolved problems outweighed the resolved ones." Following internal divisions within the TPLF, tensions between the factions led by Getachew and Debretsion became evident, further contributing to a persistent sense of insecurity among the people of Tigray.
The Interim Administration, established in March 2023, was closely followed by observers who noted that it failed to perform its expected duties in the region. This was due, in part, to the concentration of power in the hands of a single party - the TPLF - which held 50% of the power share, undermining the principle of inclusive representation. In addition to the criticisms from experts, the former president of the administration himself repeatedly acknowledged these shortcomings.
The Interim Administration was given multiple mandates but failed to deliver, with its performance described as having "wasted time through confusion, infighting, and agenda manipulation." While the leadership change initially raised hopes for reform, some believed that no meaningful change would follow.
Addis Standard spoke with experts to assess whether the Tigray Interim Administration - which has been granted a one-year extension to govern the region - can overcome ongoing challenges, avert the threat of renewed conflict, and fulfill its mandates.
The IDP crisis
Berhanu Astebeha, the Public Relations Head of Salsay Woyane Tigray - a political party operating in the region -- stated that, in the party's view, the main challenge facing the Interim Administration is its failure to return Internally Displaced People (IDP) to their places of origin. He emphasized that the party believes this issue remains unresolved because the Pretoria Peace Agreement is undermined and that the ongoing inability to facilitate returns underscores the gravity of the situation.
According to Berhanu, the return of displaced people - particularly those from Western Tigray - remains one of the most difficult challenges for the Interim Administration. He told Addis Standard that this issue is further complicated by the conflicting interests of various actors involved in the Western Tigray matter.
Nearly a million IDPs across the Tigray region are about to endure their fifth rainy season in displacement camps. Many have long been pleading, "Let us return home; don't turn our survival into a waiting game." The Trump administration's decision to halt funding for humanitarian aid shattered hopes, worsened the situation for displaced people, and made their demands even more urgent.
In January 2025, internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region held peaceful demonstrations under the slogan "Enough is Enough" Similarly, in June 2025, a group of protesters in Mekelle entered the offices of the Interim Administration after breaking down the gates and held a closed-door discussion with officials. However, despite the meeting, no displaced persons have been returned to their home.
Yohannes Tekle (PhD), a professor at Mekelle University, stated that the issue of displaced people remains one of the most critical challenges for the Interim Administration. He emphasized that it has now become a public concern for the entire region, describing it as "a matter of life and death" for the Interim Administration.
Another factor contributing to the difficulty of returning displaced people, according to Berhanu, is that the issue has become "a political gamble." He specifically pointed to internal divisions within the TPLF, which are split into two rival factions competing for dominance.
A historian familiar with the region, speaking to Addis Standard on the condition of anonymity, disagrees with the notion that the TPLF factions are "using displaced people as political pawns." According to the historian, the issue of displaced people's return is actually "an agenda pushed behind the scenes towards Tigray by the Prime Minister." He argued that the federal government is mandated, under the Pretoria Agreement, to withdraw all forces other than the Ethiopian National Defense Force from Western Tigray. However, the federal government's failure to implement this agreement is being used as a pretext to delay the return of displaced people and undermine prospects for peace.
The issue of Western Tigray
Recently, federal government agencies and media outlets have been referring to Wolkait and Humera as part of the Amhara region--areas that were constitutionally and administratively under the Tigray region prior to the two-year war. Furthermore, international organizations such as the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) have also begun to describe these areas as "contested."
This has led to strong opposition and increased criticism from Tigray. During the tenures of both Getachew and Lieutenant General Tadesse, the interim administration has repeatedly denounced such references, issuing public statements in response.
"TPLF factions, which are striving to consolidate their power, could significantly hinder the administration's efforts, thereby exacerbating its challenges"- Berhanu Astebeha, the Public Relations Head of Salsay Woyane Tigray
Berhanu said that the presence of many "actors with interests in Western Tigray" has made the situation worse, describing the interim administration's challenges as severe. Berhanu explained that if General Tadesse's administration follows Getachew's plan to return displaced people, "they will not be able to travel long distances." He particularly noted that the TPLF factions, which are striving to consolidate their power, could significantly hinder the administration's efforts, thereby exacerbating its challenges.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Interim Administration to reclaim areas under the control of the Eritrean Army and Amhara forces. In May, Lieutenant General Tadesse stated, "About 40 percent of Tigray's territory is currently under the control of militias." He made this statement during a meeting with Janis Hanifeld, the German Ambassador to Ethiopia, on 05 May, 2025, at his office. He emphasized that the administration's "main mandate is to ensure the territorial integrity of the region and to facilitate the return of displaced persons to their places of origin."
Lieutenant General Tadesse told the ambassador that it is the responsibility of the federal government to ensure the return of displaced citizens to their homes as well as the restoration of Tigray's constitutional territories to their pre-war status.
Challenges from the Federal Government
Yohannes, a professor at Mekelle University, says another major challenge for the Interim Administration is securing cooperation and trust from the federal government. He noted that as long as the federal government's "position and cooperation" regarding the region remain unchanged, the Interim Administration's efforts--regardless of who is in charge--will not achieve any progress.
The historian stated that the federal government is both the greatest challenge and the key power to overcoming those challenges for the current administration. He emphasized the importance of reviewing the extent to which the federal government has supported the administration. "The main point is whether the federal government wants the interim administration to engage in political games in the region, or if it genuinely wants it to fulfill its responsibilities," he added.
The historian stated, "The interim administration's parents are the federal government and the TPLF." He added, "The main issue is whether the interim administration can reconcile these 'parents,' be a 'good child,' fulfill its mission, and address the people's problems." He concluded by noting that the federal government will present both challenges and opportunities for the administration.
The historian expressed his suspicion, saying, "The federal government's failure to maintain the legal recognition of the TPLF by the election board, the ongoing campaign alleging connections with Eritrea, the subsequent closure of roads leading to the region, and the improper release of the budget all indicate that the federal government remains a significant challenge for the interim administration. As these agendas multiply, they become obstacles for the interim administration," he added.
The regional politics challenge
Berhanu, Head of Public Relations at Salsay Woyane, explained that the TPLF appears to be attempting to control the region's lower administrative structures--woredas and kebeles--through its military wing and by employing an exclusionary approach. He warned that this poses a significant challenge for the Interim Administration. As an example, he noted that the military has taken over numerous administrative offices.
"The interim administration's parents are the federal government and the TPLF. The main issue is whether the interim administration can reconcile these 'parents,' be a 'good child,' fulfill its mission, and address the people's problems."-A historian familiar with the region
Berhanu stated that the two years since the establishment of the Interim Administration were "wasted." He noted that making up for this lost time and ensuring the region eventually has an elected government will be a significant challenge.
A historian also criticized the Interim Administration, arguing that not only were the initial two years unproductive, but even after the one-year extension, several months have passed without meaningful progress--something he warned could further hinder the administration's effectiveness.
The division between the public and the diaspora
There is growing concern that division, animosity, and conflict among the region's residents--particularly the rise of localism, where support and opposition increasingly align along zonal lines--could lead to serious consequences. The internal split among TPLF leaders appears to be spilling over into the broader population, raising fears that it is evolving into provincialism, with certain areas offering preferential support to specific factions.
While some believe that the diaspora community's former unity and enthusiasm have eroded more than ever--posing an additional challenge--Yohannes of Mekelle University disagrees. He argues that although differences of opinion exist, there is no significant division among the public. He believes that the split among the region's elites is unlikely to extend to the wider population. According to him, the Tigrayan people have developed a sufficiently strong political consciousness to resist such fragmentation. However, he cautioned that this should not be interpreted as a complete dismissal of the possibility. He noted that early signs of division began to surface, particularly after the removal of Getachew from the presidency of the Interim Administration.
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A historian, for his part, expressed agreement with Yohannes's perspective, adding that as political events and realignments become more pronounced, growing divisions among the population may become more apparent.
What are the hopes?
Experts who spoke with Addis Standard say that the interim administration's strongest prospect lies in its potential to gain legitimacy. Berhanu, for his part, stated that the leadership of Lt. General Tadesse is likely to earn the legitimacy that was denied to Getachew's administration by some factions.
The experts stressed that, for the interim administration to succeed in this regard, it must convene a national conference and ensure equal participation for all political parties in the region. They emphasized the importance of listening to all perspectives with impartiality.
Berhanu stated that if the interim administration can achieve this, it will have the opportunity to fulfill its other mandates. He explained that this would particularly enable it to pressure the Pretoria peace agreement facilitators regarding the urgent issues of returning displaced people and ensuring the region's territorial integrity.
The historian, for his part, said that the TPLF's promised support could present an opportunity for the interim administration. However, he cautioned the TPLF to be careful not to perceive the interim administration as a tool being used by the federal government to attack it.
"If the TPLF becomes defensive and believes that the federal government is targeting it through the interim administration, it will inevitably try to defend itself--and that is only natural," he stated.
The historian and Yohannes expressed hope that the President's background as a member of the security forces--and his leadership in coordinating them during the region's bloody war--will enable him to unite all factions and fulfill his administration's mission.
Yohannes stated that the public's current trust in military leaders, more than in regional politicians, could help the President garner support for his implementation plans. He also expressed optimism that the President will work to bring extremist politicians toward the middle ground and believes he has both the opportunity and the capacity to foster a constructive battle of ideas.
Some observers note that relatively dissenting voices have begun to emerge in the region, and that platforms long dominated by a single party--such as regional media and public forums--have started to host alternative perspectives. However, there is concern that this openness may diminish in the future.
The administration appears to be wavering in its efforts to appease both the TPLF and the federal government. A historian familiar with the region
The historian stated that the greatest source of hope for the current interim administration is that it is not entangled in internal power struggles. At the same time, he expressed concern that the administration appears to be wavering in its efforts to appease both the TPLF and the federal government.
It appears to be caught in a dilemma in its efforts to satisfy both sides, and as a result, the public's concerns are neither acknowledged nor addressed. The administration is not seen making any decisive or unified resolutions. However, the interim administration's president, Lieutenant General Tadesse, is "respected by the federal government, especially by defense institutions, and his ability to collaborate effectively presents a significant opportunity." This, he added, has created a better chance and given hope for the administration's success.
