Addis Abeba — Ethiopia, with its rich history stretching from the reign of emperors to the tumultuous era of Marxist-Leninist rule and the subsequent authoritarian government led by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), remains a nation entrenched in a complex array of political transformations. The current epoch, steered by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, introduces yet another chapter to Ethiopia's dynamic history. In delving into the country's enduring political uncertainties, this discourse undertakes a thorough examination of pivotal junctures and formidable challenges that have indelibly influenced the course of Ethiopia's evolution.
The complexity of Ethiopia's diverse ethnic, cultural, and religious composition necessitates a thorough exploration of its political terrain, including persistent grievances, social tensions, and the intricate interplay of cultural and ethnic elements. Emperor Menelik II, a pivotal figure in modern Ethiopian history (1889-1913), sculpted the country's course through a political settlement marked by territorial expansions and military dominance. His leadership played a crucial role in safeguarding Ethiopia's sovereignty, notably demonstrated during the historic Battle of Adwa against the threat of invading Italian forces.
Beyond his military prowess, Menelik's legacy extends to ambitious infrastructure projects, notably the construction of a railway linking the capital Addis Abeba to Djibouti. However, his reign was marked by the concentration of power at the center and the oppression of independent communities, which madenthe political settlement under his rule rely on a feudal system that perpetuated inequality and injustice. A notable aspect was the land tenure system favoring the nobility, marginalizing peasants, and restricting their access to vital resources. These dynamics during Menelik's reign planted the seeds for subsequent political tensions and challenges in Ethiopia, rendering his era an intriguing starting point for exploring Ethiopia's modern political history.
Following Menelik's rule, Ethiopia entered a tumultuous era marked by political upheaval and external pressures during Emperor Haile Selassie's reign, including the second Italian invasion and occupation from 1936 to 1941. Haile Selassie's leadership, spanning several decades, showcased Ethiopia's resilience against external threats and its progress in international diplomacy. This was exemplified by his resistance against the Italian invasion while in exile and his subsequent advocacy for Pan-Africanism and continental leadership in the post-Italy era.
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However, Haile Selassie's period is known for its autocratic rule, limited political representation, and the suppression of dissenting voices. Tragic events, such as the devastating "Wollo Famine" of 1973-1974 and religious discrimination in favor of the Orthodox Church, further complicated this period. The excessive concentration of power within the imperial monarchy hindered political participation, stifled civil society growth, and highlighted challenges of centralization and a lack of inclusivity in governance. These complexities, inherent in Haile Selassie's rule, continue to shape contemporary Ethiopia's political landscape.
Essentially, the political settlements of imperial Ethiopia consistently neglected the democratic will of the people, obstructing aspirations for inclusive citizenship and participatory democracy. These challenges culminated in the 1974 Ethiopian Revolution, a period of significant political turbulence and social unrest. Widespread protests, often led by university students, demanding reforms and social justice, became commonplace. The regime's repression and lack of political openness ultimately led to its downfall.
The subsequent political settlements in Socialist Ethiopia originated from a revolutionary movement seeking substantial changes in the political and economic landscape of imperial Ethiopia. The overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974 marked a profound transformation in Ethiopia's political trajectory, putting an end to the millennia-old reign of the Solomonic dynasty. Upon assuming control in 1974, the Derg, a military junta, aimed to establish Marxist-Leninist rule. This ushered in an era characterized by yet another centralized control and suppression of diversity, resulting in one of the most tumultuous chapters in Ethiopia's history.
While the Derg's land reform program addressed historical land inequalities and the Universal Primary Education Program improved literacy rates, it too faced severe criticism. Suppression of political opposition, human rights abuses, economic mismanagement, prioritization of military spending, and the implementation of forced resettlement and villagization programs led to instability and widespread displacement, including the devastating Ethiopian famine of 1983-1985. Armed conflicts with various resistance movements further defined this period, characterized by widespread human rights abuses that garnered global attention.
The overthrow of the Derg regime in 1991 by the EPRDF marked a pivotal moment in Ethiopia's history, ushering in a new chapter characterized by other transformative political settlements. In its efforts to address 17 years of conflicts and violence under the Derg regime, the EPRDF implemented transitional settlements that lasted from 1991 to 1994. Simultaneously, power-sharing agreements were enacted to distribute authority among various groups, aiming to foster inclusivity in governance. However, it's noteworthy that major political forces, including the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), were expelled from the transitional settlement before the first general elections were held in 1995.
The multinational federal system, introduced as a post-civil war solution, has both pacified and deepened ethnic fault lines."
The adoption of the 1995 constitution marked a crucial step towards establishing a stable political system, emphasizing decentralization, political rights, and freedoms. Under EPRDF's rule, Ethiopia embraced a federal system that recognized the country's diverse national groups to address historical injustices. While celebrated for its commitment to diversity, the system faced criticism for inadvertently reinforcing divisions and generating power imbalances among different national groups. This period in Ethiopia's political history illustrates the complex relationship between acknowledging diversity and effectively managing it.
The EPRDF regime also introduced "Revolutionary Democracy" as its guiding ideology, emphasizing collective leadership and developmentalism. Despite allowing limited multiparty involvement, its critics accused it of stifling genuine opposition and hindering the development of a robust democratic culture. Ethiopia also pursued a developmental state model, emphasizing state-led economic planning and intervention. Although successful in various aspects, the model faced allegations of power concentration within the TPLF circle, limited private sector development, and widespread land grabbing.
Under the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia enjoyed a period of relative political stability with a focus on economic development. However, concerns regarding electoral fairness, media censorship, and restrictions on civil liberties abound. Following Meles' death in August 2012, internal power struggles and political dissent intensified, triggering widespread social movements. Protests erupted in the Oromia and Amhara regions, prompting the declaration of a state of emergency multiple times. Ethiopia spent a significant part of 2017 under a state of emergency, initially imposed in 2016. Widespread protests demanding political reforms and an end to marginalization eventually led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, who replaced Meles, paving the way for the ascension of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018.
In 2018, Ethiopia experienced a significant turning point with the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. His initial reforms, including the release of political prisoners, normalization of relations with neighboring Eritrea, and promises of increased political inclusivity were initially celebrated as steps toward democratization and reconciliation. During this period, sweeping reforms aimed at transforming Ethiopia's political landscape were implemented including liberalizing the media, fostering a more inclusive and open political environment. The peace efforts with neighboring Eritrea in 2018 restored diplomatic relations, reopened borders, and re-established trade and people-to-people interactions.
The establishment of the Prosperity Party (PP) in 2019 marked a departure from the previous revolutionary democratic doctrine, emphasizing an integrationist approach to address historical grievances and promote social cohesion. However, alongside these changes, Ethiopia faced challenges, including a resurgence of communal tensions and internal conflicts in various regions, testing the stability and progress achieved during this period. Efforts were made to undertake electoral reforms, strengthening the independence and transparency of electoral institutions to ensure free and fair elections. However, concerns persist regarding the fairness of the electoral process, including accusations of voter intimidation and manipulation during the 2021 general elections, which was boycotted by major opposition political parties.
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This period is marked by resurgence of tensions and violence, most notably reflected in the two-year brutal war in Tigray, which is reported to have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. Ethiopia's descent into this devastating war on 4 November 2020 stemmed from a complex web of factors and longstanding tensions within the nation. The war's triggering cause remains disputed, with the federal government attributing it to a surprise attack by Tigrayan forces, while Tigrayan authorities say it was an act of self-defense against federal forces that have already encircled it and were attempting to arrest regional leaders. Regardless of the initial spark, the build-up to the war was evident, marked by years of political disintegration within the central government coalition.
This war has had widespread repercussions, engulfing Tigray Regional State and later on spreading to the Amhara and Afar regions. The complexity of this devastating war arises from the involvement of multiple belligerents on the side of the federal and regional government troops, including irregular militias from neighboring Amhara region, and Eritrean Defense Forces, as well as regional states special forces on the one had, and Tigrayan forces on the other.
To comprehend the war's dynamics, it is useful to view it as four distinct wars intertwined in time and space, each with distinct political objectives and involving different belligerent parties. While the main reason of the war involved the federal government and Tigray, it is fueled by divergent visions by the rest of the actors involved, including ambitions for territorial expansion by forces from Amhara region and a score to settle by disgruntled Eritrea with two decades of unresolved conflict with Ethiopia, for which Eritrea blames the TPLF.
Ethiopia's historical journey has indeed been a continuous struggle to establish lasting political settlements, but all of which have ultimately ended in failure."
Ethiopia's historical tendency to lapse into civil war finds its roots in a complex interplay of factors, including its history of statehood, experiences of authoritarianism, identity perceptions, and political culture traditions. The ongoing debate over the definition of "Ethiopia" and its configuration reflects deep-seated issues that have persisted for decades. The federal government's declared objectives to restore "law and order" and state control over Tigray align with Amhara political actors' broader interpretation of the war as an opportunity to regain perceived lost territories in western Tigray. Control over land, a vital aspect of Ethiopian society, plays a significant role in this battle.
Eritrea's involvement in the war represents a long-standing desire for payback, dating back to the Eritrean-Ethiopian war of 1998-2000. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki's animosity towards the TPLF and his resentment for Ethiopia's multinational federal system aligns with his vision for a centralized Ethiopian state.
Efforts at peace-making face significant challenges. The multinational federal system, introduced as a post-civil war solution, has both pacified and deepened ethnic fault lines. The Ethiopian government's National Dialogue initiative, launched in 2022, has struggled due to the exclusion of opposition parties the designation of some groups as "terrorist organizations", and the ongoing conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions, as well as the lack of progress in launching a meaningful political dialogue between the federal government and the Tigray region. International mediation attempts have been hampered, leaving the conflicts in Amhara and Oromia regions unresolved and exacerbating the overall geopolitical tensions in the Horn of Africa.
Despite a decrease in violent incidents in 2023, challenges persist in implementing the Pretoria peace agreement, particularly related to the establishment of a transitional justice and the withdrawal of foreign and non-ENDF forces from Tigray. The government's announcement in April 2023 to integrate all regional forces into the national police and army has led to protests in Amhara region followed by armed uprising by local militias who resisted the move.
The Amhara region has since become a hub of political intrigue and armed conflict as tensions escalate between the Ethiopian military and the local Fano militia. These tensions and subsequent conflict reveal a long-standing divide fueled by enduring grievances from the defunct EPRDF era, complex power dynamics within the ruling Prosperity Party, allegations of favoritism towards the Oromo branch of the party, and unfulfilled promises.
While the decision to disband the Amhara Regional Special Forces is viewed as a deliberate maneuver to weaken the region, a peace talk was initiated between the government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in April. The OLA, a long-standing rebel group opposing the government, had briefly allied with the Tigrayan forces during their advance towards Addis Abeba.
Despite two rounds of talks between the government and OLA however, tensions persist, and Prime Minister Abiy, in June 2023, expressed concern about paramilitaries posing a "significant risk to national unity" and subsequently continued military operations both in Amhara and Oromia regions with the aim that only the national security forces have the right to assert monopoly on violence; this underscores the ongoing security challenges and the complex nature of the peace process. The situation highlights the delicate balance Prime Minister Abiy must navigate between negotiation efforts and the use of force to address internal conflicts and achieve national unity. The integration of regional forces into national security structures is a pivotal aspect of this process, requiring careful handling to avoid further unrest.
While a cessation of hostilities agreement has been signed with the TPLF, ensuring its successful implementation remained crucial, with careful attention needed for the resolution of the status of the territories occupied by forces from Amhara region and the Eritrean defense forces. Despite two rounds of peace talks with the OLA not yielding desired results, it also remains crucial to maintain pressure and actively pursue peaceful talks for a lasting solution. Similarly, the resolution for the conflict with the Fano militia hinges on dialogue. The peace talks with TPLF and OLA indicate a willingness to engage with adversarial groups, yet challenges persist as the government grapples with the intricacies of uniting diverse factions under a national security framework. Addressing this complex web of challenges demands a comprehensive and inclusive approach. While the establishment of the National Dialogue Commission holds the potential to bridge these gaps, its effectiveness in fostering meaningful dialogue and facilitating the understanding, reconciliation, and forgiveness among different segments of society is largely questionable.
In light of this analysis, the ensuing section will thoroughly discuss the consequences of Ethiopia's recurrent political unsettlements to shed light on their implications for contemporary politics. Ethiopia's historical journey, marked by a series of unsuccessful political settlements, underscores the urgent need for the nation to confront lingering challenges for a sustainable political settlement. The intricate interplay of Ethiopia's diverse ethnic, cultural, and religious composition has contributed to persistent grievances and social tensions throughout its political history. Ethiopia has grappled with political structures that perpetuated inequality and injustice.
Repercussions of Ethiopia's failed political settlement
Ethiopia's historical journey has indeed been a continuous struggle to establish lasting political settlements, but all of which have ultimately ended in failure. It is, thus, imperative to appreciate the profound consequences of these failures that permeate every facet of Ethiopian society. They are manifested in the deep-seated divisions, the escalation of violent conflicts, hindrances in the nation-building process, setbacks in the march towards democracy, and a persistent climate of unstable governance.
The clash of conflicting historical narratives and the selective remembrance of pivotal events in Ethiopia have marginalized countless national groups, sowing the seeds of division and discord."
Imperial Ethiopia confronted substantial challenges, primarily rooted in the denial of autonomy to diverse national groups within its ethnically rich fabric. With over 80 ethnically distinct national groups, the centralized monarchy's authority often collided with the autonomy and representation demanded by these diverse communities. Appointing administrators from the northern regions and favoring the language of the ruling elite had exacerbated the sense of exclusion and marginalization among various groups, ultimately giving rise to armed resistance movements and fervent calls for self-determination.
Economic oppression deepened these historical predicaments, concentrating wealth and vital resources, such as agricultural land, in the hands of a privileged minority, primarily nobles hailing from northern Ethiopia. This entrenched exploitation of local populations and resources engendered a system of economic oppression, relegating the majority to abject poverty and stocking social discontent and grievances.
Furthermore, the aftermath of the conquest of southern territories and the subsequent suffering of its inhabitants has been a glaring omission or distortion in official historical narratives. Historians often downplay or omit the subjugation and exploitation of the southern regions, opting for euphemistic terms like "unification" and "expansion." This selective portrayal hampers a comprehensive understanding of the past and contributes to the fragmentation of national politics, thereby impeding the creation of a cohesive and transformative political landscape.
The clash of conflicting historical narratives and the selective remembrance of pivotal events in Ethiopia have marginalized countless national groups, sowing the seeds of division and discord. The inability to effectively manage diversity has led to disparate interpretations of heroes and historical events, transforming memorials and commemorative events into contentious battlegrounds where opposing narratives collide. For instance, the statue of Emperor Menelik II in Addis Abeba symbolizes contrasting meanings for various groups, with ethno- nationalists viewing him as a symbol of genocide against their people, while ethio-nationalists perceive him as a champion of unification. These conflicting narratives and commemorative practices exacerbate divisions and contribute to the polarization of Ethiopian society.
Moreover, the contradictions and fragmentation of national politics in Ethiopia are direct outcomes of past political failures, perpetuating the status quo, obstructing progress, and hindering transformative politics. Despite noteworthy past achievements, such as the 1974 land redistribution reform and the subsequent establishment of a multinational federal system in 1991, inconsistent implementation and political actions have resulted in the persistence of poverty, oppression, and authoritarianism.
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The Ethiopian state's historical opposition to the right to self- determination for its national groups is partly driven by the contradictions and inconsistencies exhibited by successive regimes. This denial of self-determination rights and the perpetuation of marginalization have driven some groups towards secession as a means to achieve freedom and peace. Additionally, under the EPRDF regime, well-meaning land reforms aimed at benefiting farmers were undermined by authoritarian development schemes and the leasing of land to foreign investors, leading to forced displacement and human rights violations.
Ethnicity has ascended as a defining factor in Ethiopian politics, fostering both identity politics and perceptions of dominance by certain groups. The centralized party structure and ongoing debates over the federal system further exacerbate divisions within the country, contributing to the impoverishment of national politics. Recent political developments since 2018 have underscored this paradoxical experience, where citizens have oscillated between empowerment and constraint through political action. The initial optimism for a transition to democracy, fueled by youth protest movements, has been overshadowed by a relapse into civil conflict and the mismanagement of the political transition. This cyclical pattern of expanding and contracting democracy has become a persistent obstacle to meaningful change in Ethiopia.
Another significant fallout of Ethiopia's failed political settlements is the inability to effectively manage diversity, echoing across successive regimes. Ethiopia's historical trajectory unfolds through three pivotal phases: imperial, socialist, and federal. Despite efforts to embrace a multi- national polity, active participation in politics often necessitated assimilation into the dominant cultural values of Abyssinia. The imperial regimes vigorously pursued a policy of assimilation, aiming to establish a single Amhara-dominated identity while marginalizing other languages and cultures. The imposition of Amharic as the sole state language further suppressed linguistic and cultural diversity, sowing cultural conflicts and resentment among different ethnic groups, and hindering the formation of a cohesive national identity that embraces diversity.
This mismanagement of diversity fueled violent political struggles, hampering social progress and stability. Consequently, conflicting narratives and debates surrounding Ethiopia's cultural and political identity perpetuate frameworks that either romanticize, sanitize, or disparage the nation's history, perpetuating the cyclical political deadlock.
Despite widespread beliefs, identity-based conflicts cannot be solely attributed to the 27-year tenure of EPRDF's experiment with federalism. Throughout modern Ethiopian history, incidents rooted in ethnic identity have displayed recurring patterns. These conflicts stem from the enduring divisions perpetuated by the denial of autonomy and the favoring of specific groups, a trend dating back to the imperial era. The consequences of these failures are unmistakable, with inequalities and injustices stemming from the conquest and occupation of southern territories persisting, while the invaluable history, culture, and political structures of marginalized groups remain disregarded.
In general, Ethiopia's historical journey towards enduring political settlements has been fraught with formidable challenges, and the repercussions of these challenges reverberate through the nation's fabric. Today, these failures have given rise to deep divisions, violent conflicts, impediments to a democratic nation-building process, and an atmosphere of unstable governance. To address these complex issues effectively, a holistic and thoughtful approach is imperative - one that recognizes the multifaceted nature of Ethiopia's political landscape.
Charting the path to inclusive governance
Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, grappling with a complex array of unaddressed challenges that have persisted across its historical political landscape. Foremost among these challenges is the enduring complexity of Ethiopia's ethnic, cultural, and religious composition, which continues to fuel long standing grievances and social tensions. The failure to effectively navigate and address these divisions has hindered the formation of a cohesive national identity, impeding efforts to build a united and inclusive society.
The legacy of imperial rule casts a long shadow, as historical injustices stemming from issues such as land tenure and social justice persist. This unaddressed legacy of inequality and oppression poses an ongoing challenge to the establishment of a fair and just society. Additionally, the imprint of authoritarian rule lingers, with limited political representation and the suppression of dissent creating obstacles to the development of a robust democratic culture. This unresolved aspect contributes to cycles of political instability and societal discontent. Striking a balance between the interests of various stakeholders, with particular attention to marginalized groups, is essential for ensuring ownership and authority.
Ethiopia's historical journey towards enduring political settlements has been fraught with formidable challenges, and the repercussions of these challenges reverberate through the nation's fabric."
The implementation of multinational federalism aimed at addressing historical injustices, yet the unintended consequences of reinforcing ethnic divisions and power imbalances remain unaddressed. This challenge poses a continued threat to national unity and stability. The criticisms surrounding the development model, including persistent trade imbalances, high levels of external debt, the authoritarian government's approach to governance, limited private sector development, and accusations of land grabbing, persist without resolution. Unaddressed, these issues risk undermining economic development and exacerbating social inequalities. Allegations of electoral irregularities, including voter intimidation and manipulation, media censorship, and restrictions on civil liberties, remain unaddressed, eroding trust in democratic institutions.
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Ongoing political instability and societal unrest form a concerning backdrop in Ethiopia. The heightened ethnic tensions and conflicts, vividly demonstrated during the war in the Tigray region, and conflicts involving the Amhara Fano militia, and the Oromo Liberation Army present a significant threat to national stability. Left unaddressed, these challenges could escalate into broader societal unrest and humanitarian crises, posing a continual risk to political stability. This instability is part of a historical pattern of past political failures, leaving Ethiopia with a fragmented society that has currently brought progress to a screeching halt.
However, within this tumultuous history lies a distinct opportunity for Ethiopia to embark on a transformative journey rooted in inclusivity, dialogue, and change. To realize this potential, Ethiopia's unaddressed challenges must be met with focused attention and strategic interventions. Paving the way for a more stable, inclusive, and resilient nation necessitates a commitment to meaningful dialogue, structural reforms, and a collective effort to address the root causes of persistent political uncertainties.
The way forward hinges on re-calibrating Ethiopia's political landscape, particularly the dynamic between the state and society. Such re-calibration is paramount in establishing an inclusive democracy that respects and celebrates the rich diversity of Ethiopia's national groups. Such an approach is key to bridging existing divisions and forging a path towards unity and progress. As Ethiopia navigates this critical juncture, drawing on the lessons of the past becomes imperative. Acknowledging the complexities that have hindered progress and embracing a forward-looking approach that prioritizes unity and the well-being of all Ethiopians is essential. Only through such integrated strategies can Ethiopia hope to overcome its historical burdens and build a foundation for enduring stability and inclusivity.
In navigating this intricate process, it is crucial to harmonize two key approaches to diversity management: integration and accommodation. These approaches, often viewed as opposing forces, can, in fact, complement each other. Integration focuses on forging a shared national identity, bridging ethnic and religious divides, and fostering cohesion among diverse communities. Accommodation, on the other hand, emphasizes the importance of representation, rectifying historical injustices, and ensuring marginalized voices are not excluded from the political system. Balancing both approaches is essential to grant diverse groups a meaningful stake in governance while fostering unity and inclusivity. This approach should prioritize inclusivity, where diversity is not just tolerated but actively celebrated, and trust is nurtured through collective ownership in governance. Achieving this balance can be facilitated through carefully crafted constitutional arrangements that emphasize proportional representation, power-sharing, federalism, and robust checks and balances, all while nurturing a shared national identity. This balanced approach is pivotal for stability, inclusive governance, and paving the way for a prosperous future.
The nature of political settlements play a significant role in governance and societal well-being. Participation and inclusion must be central elements in the formation of these settlements. Striking a balance between the interests of various stakeholders, with particular attention to marginalized groups, is essential for ensuring ownership and authority. The type of political settlement, whether fragmented or broad-based, holds profound consequences for governance and development. Ethiopia's aim should be to strive for a broad-based settlement that empowers regional entities and promotes the rule of law.
In the domain of constitutional design, Ethiopia must tailor its approach to address the nation's unique challenges. Striking a balance between centralization and decentralization is of utmost importance, granting sub-national units significant decision- making powers while maintaining national cohesion. Prioritizing inclusive and participatory decision-making mechanisms is essential to encourage the active engagement of diverse communities. Moreover, fostering healthy competition among sub-national units is crucial for promoting good governance and innovation. The constitution should also be adaptable, capable of responding to evolving challenges and societal changes.
International actors can play a constructive role in the pursuit of an inclusive political settlement. However, their involvement should be approached with caution, always respecting national sovereignty, and focusing on facilitating local ownership. International engagement should prioritize the inclusion of diverse stakeholders, even within conflict zones, while simultaneously establishing mechanisms for accountability and transparency.
As Ethiopia advances its national dialogue and reconciliation efforts, it is imperative to engage with a wider population and uphold the agency of local communities. Achieving lasting peace and democracy necessitates a collective endeavor to bridge divisions, promote inclusive governance, and ensure justice and equality for all of Ethiopia's diverse populations. AS
This commentary was originally published in The Addis Standard Quarterly Journal (ASQJ), Issue #2. The HD E-version of the article is available via the link provided below.
Click here to download the HD e-version of Mebratu Kelecha's commentary
Editor's Note: The author of this commentary, Mebratu Kelecha (PhD), is a UK-based conflict researcher specializing in the Horn of Africa, particularly Ethiopia. He earned his PhD in politics from the University of Westminster and an MSc in conflict prevention and peacebuilding from Durham University.
