Dar es Salaam — The Chief Research Officer of the Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH), Philbert Luhunga, has warned of an increase in unpredictable climate change, including significant delays in rainfall.
Presenting the results of a study he conducted on climate change forecasting in the country, Luhanga said the changes are already affecting the lives of farmers and could push 2.6 million more Tanzanians into poverty by 2050, according to World Bank figures.
Luhunga issued the warning based on the results of his study published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.
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The report shows that there will be very heavy and intense rainy days reaching 50 millimeters to 450 millimeters of rain, which will become more common across the country, especially affecting coastal areas, the southwestern highlands, and the northeastern regions.
"Climate change should no longer be taken lightly, but as an emergency," Luhunga said.
He added, "Using current climate patterns and data from 2011 to 2100, the study shows that even regions of Tanzania that are traditionally cold are warming rapidly, with warmer nights expected in urban areas that can disrupt sleep and pose health risks."
His analysis also showed that the October to December rainy season is becoming increasingly unpredictable. This situation increases the possibility of uncertainty for communities already facing the effects of climate change.
He said the impetus for conducting the study came from witnessing events such as the December 2011 floods in Dar es Salaam, where Dar es Salaam experienced its heaviest rainfall since independence in 1961.
"The city's canals were filled and large numbers of residents were displaced, which is already changing daily life."
According to World Bank estimates, climate change could force 13 million Tanzanians to flee their homes by 2050.
"Policymakers need to think twice now," Luhunga warns.
Linda Paulo, an assistant lecturer at Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences (MUHAS), said rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall could exacerbate disease outbreaks.
She said the ongoing fight against cholera was a sign of the growing health challenges.
"Tanzania must prioritize addressing the multiple impacts of climate change on food security, nutrition, and public health," Linda said.
She also stressed the importance of proper planning for emerging cities rather than repeating the mistakes of big city infrastructure.
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For her part, Climate Hub Tanzania Director, Laurel Kivuyo, stressed the importance of a multi-stakeholder climate adaptation strategy to effectively address the coming climate challenges.
"A dedicated climate finance mechanism for civil society organizations must first be established to enable grassroots planning," he said.
"This should be accompanied by integrating local knowledge, such as traditional water conservation and agroforestry, into national climate adaptation plans.
He also said it is important to promote climate-resilient agriculture, improve early warning systems, and upgrade infrastructure for climate resilience are key steps to protect communities and livelihoods across the country."
