US consumers and citrus growers in the Western and Northern Cape both stand to lose from the Trump administration's looming 30% tariff on South African imports. There are no winners in this sad saga, and crates of citrus may go to waste.

South African citrus growers have a bumper crop on their hands, and according to the latest estimates from the Citrus Growers Association (CGA), the industry expects to export a record 180 million 15kg cartons of the fruit this season.

That would be an above 9% increase on 2024's 164.6 million, which was just shy of the 2023 record of 165.1 million cartons packed for global delivery.

This is a big deal. South Africa is the world's second-largest citrus exporter after Spain, juicing the domestic economy with forex earnings, job creation and a value chain that extends to carton producers, input providers and roadside stands. The industry employs about 140,000 people.

But the tariff tantrums of the US administration could prune the current record estimate and reap a bitter harvest in the Northern and Western Cape, where the South African citrus destined for the American market is grown.

Friday, 1 August is D-Day for US President Donald Trump's...