Addis Abeba — When the United Nations Security Council voted in December 2023 to lift Somalia's long-standing arms embargo, many framed it as a vote of confidence, a sign that the world was ready to support Somalia's recovery and sovereignty after decades of internal conflict. However, more than 19 months later, the outcomes of that resolution have proven to be less than encouraging. Far from stabilizing the country, the removal of the embargo has accelerated the spread of weapons across Somalia, heightened regional tensions, and placed civilian lives--in Somalia, Somaliland, and the broader Horn of Africa--at growing risk.
The intent may have been to empower Somalia. The result, however, has been far more volatile. Somalia remains deeply fractured. It has no unified national security architecture, minimal control over its borders, and fragmented political authority. According to the 2023 Global Organized Crime Index, Somalia scored 9 out of 10 for arms trafficking risk and only 1.5 out of 10 for territorial integrity, indicators that should have raised red flags before any arms embargo was lifted.
Despite these concerns, the weapons have started to flow. Last month, authorities in Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region intercepted a foreign-flagged cargo ship suspected of carrying a substantial cache of weapons and military vehicles. The vessel, reportedly destined for Mogadishu, was seized near the coastal town of Bareeda in the Gardafuu region. The incident has heightened long-standing concerns that arms intended for state use may be diverted to militias, political factions, and extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab and ISIS-HoA.
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With few mechanisms in place to regulate, trace, or secure these arms, the current policy appears dangerously premature. In Somaliland's eastern Sool region, we are already witnessing increased militarization and growing tension. Somali federal actors, emboldened by new weapons access and shifting regional alliances, are escalating political provocations and applying pressure on historically peaceful areas. This isn't just a security risk--it's an unraveling of stability that took decades to build.
This is not the first time the international community has moved too fast with arms policy in fragile states. In Libya, poorly monitored weapons deliveries after 2011 flooded the black market, strengthened militias, and helped ignite years of civil war. In South Sudan, arms imported under the pretext of nation-building were later used in ethnically charged violence, turning political rivalry into national catastrophe. Both cases demonstrate a painful truth: rearming a fractured state without robust oversight can do more harm than good.
Somalia, while showing progress in some areas, is not yet ready to manage arms flows at scale."
Somalia, while showing progress in some areas, is not yet ready to manage arms flows at scale. It lacks consistent end-use verification, weapons storage protocols, or neutral institutions capable of ensuring weapons remain in the right hands. The consequences of these gaps are not hypothetical; they are visible, unfolding, and deeply alarming.
Somaliland: Case of collateral harm
Somaliland, which has for over three decades maintained an independent, peaceful trajectory with functional governance and regular democratic transitions, now finds itself facing external threats that are not of its own making. The region's stability, long seen as an outlier in the Horn, is increasingly exposed to the spillover effects of international miscalculations.
Let us be clear: this is not a call to isolate Somalia. It is a call for accountability, realism, and responsible diplomacy. Rebuilding Somalia's military capacity should not come at the expense of regional peace. Weapons, when introduced into fragile and politically fragmented systems without proper safeguards, become catalysts for instability, not tools for recovery.
If a complete reinstatement of the arms embargo is no longer politically feasible, the United Nations Security Council must promptly implement robust and enforceable safeguards. These measures should include third-party monitoring mechanisms for all weapon imports, verification of end-user certificates coupled with physical storage inspections, real-time reporting on the movement of weapons within Somalia, and stringent sanctions and penalties for any diversion or misuse. These measures are the minimum required to ensure weapons intended for national defense do not end up fueling civil conflict or cross-border destabilization. Without them, the region risks reliving the same avoidable tragedies witnessed in Libya, South Sudan, and elsewhere--where premature international confidence translated into long-term humanitarian crises.
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Conclusion
I call on the international community to re-examine its approach, not just for Somalia's sake, but for the stability of the entire Horn of Africa. True peacebuilding requires more than symbolism. It requires foresight, restraint, and responsibility. The people of the region have endured enough violence. The cost of complacency will not be measured in policy errors; it will be counted in displacement, division, and lives lost. Let us not wait for another crisis to remind us of what could have been prevented. AS
Editor's Note: Abdi Halim M. Musa is a political analyst and a former Deputy Minister at the Ministry of Commerce in Somaliland. He can be reached at [email protected]
