On 18 August, Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group's Program Director for Africa, spoke to the UN Security Council on the need for global and regional partners to take urgent action in addressing the perilous situation in South Sudan.
Thank you, Mr President. I am honoured to address the Security Council today on behalf of the International Crisis Group.
Our organisation, now commemorating its thirtieth anniversary, is committed to the prevention, mitigation and resolution of deadly conflict. It is in the spirit of this conflict mitigation mandate that I address you today.
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This is a perilous moment for South Sudan. The country is experiencing one of its worst humanitarian crises since gaining independence, aggravated by both internal unrest and regional instability. Approximately 9.3 million people are in dire need of assistance, with 7.7 million suffering from acute food insecurity. Sexual violence is rife.
The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) is working to prevent a return to civil war and to promote lasting peace. But two significant developments highlight the need for more urgent preventive diplomacy by regional and global partners.
First, the 2018 peace accord, which brought an end to the previous civil war, appears to be collapsing. The terms of that settlement required President Salva Kiir to work in concord with his rival First Vice President Riek Machar and others to achieve a set of objectives including unifying the security forces, forging a new constitution and laying the ground for the country's first elections. That accord was effectively terminated when President Kiir placed the former Vice President under house arrest on 26 March. Trust runs low among the chief belligerents in the last civil war and also within the President's own camp, amid an undeclared succession battle.
Second, the devastating civil war in neighbouring Sudan has radiated instability into its southern neighbour and much of the region. It has driven over 1.2 million people into South Sudan, further straining already limited resources and services. South Sudan has also lost most of its oil revenues as fighting has disrupted flows to Port Sudan, and therefore its ability to reach global markets. A severe humanitarian funding shortfall threatens to cut off life-saving aid to millions of vulnerable individuals.
Against this backdrop, the security situation has deteriorated sharply. The army, backed by Ugandan forces and allied militias, has sustained a military campaign against opposition strongholds in the Equatoria and Upper Nile regions of South Sudan since March.
Human security suffers in other ways too. Many people struggle with climatic stresses. An estimated 95 per cent of the population are vulnerable to climate shocks. These environmental pressures feed into South Sudan's ongoing humanitarian crises.
For all these reasons, the operating environment for UNMISS and humanitarian partners remains perilous.
Mr President,
Regional and global partners ought to take urgent action to collaborate effectively in addressing the situation in South Sudan. The immediate priority should be to prevent any escalation of violence. Member states with close ties to South Sudan, such as Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Africa and Tanzania, should call for a pause in military actions to create an opportunity for dialogue between the government and opposition groups. The Security Council should complement and amplify these messages.
Resolving Riek Machar's situation is delicate but critical. Ideally, President Kiir should be encouraged to allow Machar to return to his previous role as First Vice President in line with the 2018 peace agreement. Other options carry significant risks. Keeping the former Vice President indefinitely confined in Juba is rankling his political base. Forcing him into exile would do the same. His prolonged detention in South Africa in 2016, following the collapse of a 2015 peace deal, fuelled an insurgency that came at a forbidding cost to civilians. Juba has denied access to multiple envoys seeking to reach Machar since his house arrest, including former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga and a delegation from the African Union.
Negotiations regarding the Vice President's detention should be integrated into broader discussions about South Sudan's future, including issues related to succession. Member states with historic close ties to South Sudan should unite to create a rescue plan aimed at preventing wider infighting or state collapse.
This plan could involve establishing a forum for South Sudanese elites to manage existing political tensions over South Sudan's stalled transition, as these tensions - especially concerning Kiir's succession - are unlikely to be resolved through elections alone. Such a forum could lay the groundwork for future discussions on a new constitution, which is essential for holding national elections as stipulated in the 2018 peace deal, alongside party elections for the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and national polls, all contingent upon averting immediate conflict. UNMISS should work closely with the African Union and regional bloc IGAD to try and ease tensions and fashion a more cohesive and effective strategy for promoting lasting peace and stability.
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The United Nations, with its extensive presence across South Sudan, should support these diplomatic efforts and take proactive measures to protect civilians by providing safe havens if ethnic violence escalates. Member states should provide adequate funding to address the urgent humanitarian needs exacerbated by climate shocks, the spillover of war from Sudan, and rising violence in multiple states within South Sudan, while also supporting the political processes backed by UNMISS.
We would also encourage the Security Council to support the peacekeeping mission's efforts to prioritise gender considerations across its good offices, protection activities and reporting. The 2024 UNMISS mandate now includes the strongest UN position on climate issues to date and the mission should continue this work, calling for a better understanding of how climate stresses affect peace and security.
The direct participation of civil society representatives in Council meetings, especially women working to mitigate and resolve conflict in South Sudan, will be essential in this endeavour.
The people of South Sudan deserve a future marked by peace, stability and self-reliance. We bear a collective responsibility to help them finally realise the promise of their independence.
I thank you, Mr President.
