In the run-up to the release of second-quarter GDP figures I am slightly concerned that the country's performance may not be as robust as at the start of the year.

In about three weeks, on 9 September, Statistics South Africa will release the GDP data for the second quarter of 2025. One of the sectors that some are likely to be observing closely, because of its significant influence on our fortunes in recent years, is agriculture.

In the first quarter of the year the sector's performance was pleasing; the agricultural gross value added expanded by 15.8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). This expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors.

But as close observers of the sector know, the quarterly data tends to be somewhat volatile, influenced by times of harvest and crop deliveries, among other factors. For this reason, I remain slightly concerned that the second-quarter performance may not be as robust as at the start of the year.

We had a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum at the start of the third quarter than usually seen in the second quarter of the year. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). But the season was late by roughly a month and a half because of the excessively prolonged summer...