The legal liquor industry is a major contributor to injury, disease, and death in South Africa. Studies point to alcohol as a factor in 60% of femicides, half of all homicides, two-fifths of rapes and a quarter of traffic fatalities due to driver error.

Late last year, National Treasury proposed the introduction of minimum unit pricing to reduce heavy drinking.

There has since been a steady infusion of articles by the liquor industry claiming a sharp increase in the production and sale of illicit alcohol over the past decade, and suggesting an even more chilling effect on tax revenues if minimum unit pricing were to be implemented.

Clearly, this narrative is meant to push the buttons of a government struggling to balance its books. Things came to a head on 8 August 2025 when Business Day led with claims by South African Breweries (SAB) CEO Richard Rivett-Carnac that minimum unit pricing will "punish the poor and turbocharge the illicit market, harming both the industry and public safety".

These claims need to be dissected, both for their truthfulness and their logic. But before we do that, it is important to explain how minimum unit pricing works and what it...