Armed conflict terrifies and eliminates a huge number of innocent people. In some African countries that had been engaged in domestic social conflicts, millions of people have been killed and subjected to disease and malnutrition. In a short period of time, civil wars have also displaced people internally and triggered refugee outflows of millions of Africans, including Ethiopians. Also, genocidal slaughter has led to extreme human toll of violence and war, skirmishes and strife.
The political and economic effects of violent conflicts have been enormous, vast and huge to account for. The Ethiopian heritage of violent conflicts includes significant and extensive loss of human lives, livelihoods, employment and incomes. It also destroyed infrastructure, caused the collapse of state institutions and rule of law. The civil wars and strife have led to a continuing insecurity and fractured social networks. After decades of protracted conflicts, some African countries remained as the most impoverished and conflict prone in the world. As a result, these countries are near the bottom by all human development indicators.
Previous researches indicated that in the past, a few African countries have been considered as the weakest states in the world. However, recent researches indicate that the number of armed conflicts that erupted in the past decades is in decline. There are now several countries that can be described as having entered a post-conflict phase since then. Many of these are low-income countries where conflict has made the already difficult challenges more complex. Economic recovery is indispensable for reversing these complex challenges and for reducing the risk of degeneration to violence.
However, it has been possible to create the conditions for self-sustaining and inclusive growth in the aftermath of violent conflict. These conditions appear to be occurring in African countries, including Ethiopia. The kinds of policies and strategies required for the development process in these countries are expected to be in place. To achieve these policies in practical terms, the concerned parties have to strive for economic recovery and development.
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In the post conflict situation, economic recovery is a fundamental requirement for human development. Broad-based economic recovery is critical for avoiding the recurrence of violence within countries, including Ethiopia. It is very important to identify indigenous drivers or agents that have capacities and institutions that have "survived" a conflict. These capacities have to be nurtured and reinforced by the African governments, including the Ethiopian government, using appropriate policies and programs of support. Also, the efforts and initiatives of households, communities and firms have to be strengthened as they strive to reconstruct their lives at the end of a conflict.
Researchers have confirmed that indigenous leaders provide the most feasible and practical stages on which to encourage post conflict recovery efforts. External support may be needed to facilitate the recovery endeavors based on experiences from other countries. They may assist in the design of policies that bind and build on social practices and interactions on the ground. They also look for indigenous capacities which may be more likely to be successful and self-sustaining.
Apart from recovery policies, the concerned parties should examine the macroeconomic policies that post-conflict countries may adopt. When a conflict or war ends, countries, including Ethiopia, confront serious macroeconomic problems such as unemployment, inflation, fiscal deficits, external and domestic debt and low domestic revenues. In handling these problems, successful economic recovery primarily involves deeper analyses of challenging tasks.
The design of measures that manage inflation, for example, focus on attaining economic growth and make the best use of foreign aid, build a conducive environment for private investment and attain reasonable fiscal autonomy. In this respect, there is a lot of experience to share from many countries that have undergone post conflict recovery. Also, the role of the state in the economic recovery process is very pertinent for countries in Africa, including Ethiopia. After social conflicts or skirmishes or wars, the recovery and rehabilitation of the government itself is a priority, particularly because of its functions are essential for the consolidation of peace and harmony in the country.
The governance and institutional requirements that are decisive and vital for both economic recovery and reign of peace include the restoration of effective state "control." Governments of African countries, including Ethiopia, have to manage public finances and mechanisms for supervision and accountability before and after conflicts. Also, effective public administration and inclusive political mechanisms and institutions are necessary in post conflict era.
In some situations, however, conflicts recur after a short period of peace. In other cases, some violence continues even when conflict has seemingly ended. Experts characterize post-conflict countries according to their progress along "peace-building" efforts. They think that a post-conflict country should be seen as laying the ground for permanent peace, though it could sometimes embark on petty skirmishes. However, as long as a country does not slide back on conflicts, it may convincingly be expected to continue peacefully towards recovery.
Studies have shown that the following items are the most important peace-building objectives in post conflict countries. 1) ceasing hostilities and violence; 2) signing of peace agreements; 3) demobilization, disarmament and reintegration; 4) return of refugees and internally displaced persons; 5) establishing the foundations for a functioning state; 6) initiating reconciliation and societal integration; and 7) commencing economic recovery. Based on these objectives, most of the countries whose conflicts ended embark on economic development.
However, the most tragic effect of conflict is the huge loss of lives of citizens who never caused the crises. Also, violent conflict is known to generate extensive destruction and degradation of physical capital and infrastructure. It reduced standards of human capital due to deaths, diseases and displacements. It engendered capital flight and the collapse of economic growth. Conflict led to loss of jobs, employment opportunities and livelihoods and it weakened institutions.
Moreover, conflict caused a decline of social capital, particularly the type of networks that reached across ethnic or communal divides as in Ethiopia. The capacity of African governments that experienced conflicts is generally weakened with the result that it may no longer finance basic services or infrastructure.
Other challenges of post-conflict recovery include significant changes in the structure of the economy. It leads to an increase in subsistence agriculture and informal activities in both the rural and urban areas of Africa as well as Ethiopia. People who have lost formal employment opportunities struggled to survive through informal production of goods and services for exchange. Local creative activities also expand as conflict reduces the power of the state to regulate. This situation also increases opportunities for Khat and drug production and trade and smuggling in Ethiopia.
Studies reveal, however, that the economy never disappears altogether, even during the most pervasive and long-lasting conflicts. Some normal economic activities remain, but there are also "shifts" in economic activity showing the real changes in structure and incentives that occur after conflict. Some of these activities are directly related to conflict, such as illegal production of and trade in arms. The studies reveal that other activities also flourish because of the war situation, such as smuggling, drug production and trade.
There have been general trends and common characteristics of post-conflict economies that may be observed in some countries. The length, scope and intensity of conflict affect the situation on the ground, and the prospects for recovery in these countries. They emerged from conflicts with a reserve of economic assets, human capital, functioning institutions and a formal economy that still works. But, some countries, including Ethiopia, may not face hurdles to both sustainable peace and economic recovery if concerned parties agree to do so.
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Countries recovering from hardships remained susceptible to the recurrence of conflicts. Studies suggest that post-conflict recovery activities may not aggravate the risk of return to violence. These activities may not have should not have negative impacts including inequalities and mal-distribution of income. These may lead to tensions which are inadvertently aggravated leading to conflicts and violence instead of recovery.
Recovery is a process of socioeconomic transformation and not the mere restoration of past structures and dynamics. It may not be a simple return to pre-conflict levels and trends. Thus, recovery is multidimensional and takes time. Conflict results from imbalances in socioeconomic and political arrangements. These "imbalances" are major causes of outbreak of conflict, resulting in high risk factors. Thus, the extent to which a country is recovering from conflict must be determined by the correction of the above mentioned imbalances.
The ultimate aim is, therefore, to establish the conditions for effective economic growth and human development. One of the conditions is gender equity which is an important concern in the process of economic recovery in countries such as Ethiopia. This concern underlines the different contributions that men and women make to economic and sociopolitical life. It also ensures equal access to opportunities irrespective of gender. Thus, post-conflict recovery "policy" must begin with a strong assessment of the indigenous drivers of recovery.
