Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael on the paramilitary force's creation of a rival administration based in western Sudan.
On 30 August, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced the swearing-in of a new government in Nyala, South Darfur. At war with the Sudanese army since April 2023, the RSF now controls much of western Sudan. Its move to proclaim a government appears to take the country a step closer toward partition after more than two years of devastating conflict.
The RSF published videos showing its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, presiding over the formation of a fifteen-member Presidential Council, which he now heads. Abdelaziz al-Hilu, leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-North), a rebel group that controls much of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and which entered an alliance with the RSF in February, was sworn in as Hemedti's deputy. Mohamed Hassan al-Taishi, a former member of Sudan's transitional government who hails from South Darfur, is prime minister.
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Though the RSF claims that the new government's authority is national in scope, its primary intent appears to be to challenge the legitimacy of its rival, the Sudanese army. The army formed its own civilian-led administration in May, with Kamil Idriss as prime minister. The UN and Arab League recognise the army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, as Sudan's head of state, but the African Union does not. Even if few or no governments eventually recognise the new RSF administration, its leaders at least want to dissuade others from recognising Burhan's.
The new government also appears to be an attempt to broaden the RSF's political appeal following major battlefield losses at the beginning of the year. A large-scale army offensive pushed the RSF west from its positions in Sudan's riverine heartland, culminating in the loss of the capital, Khartoum, in March. It was a major blow to the RSF's military position and leverage in any future peace talks. Creating a parallel government should allow the RSF to consolidate new alliances, notably with al-Hilu's SPLM-North.
There is unlikely to be progress toward a functioning public administration any time soon.
Hopes that the new government will make it easier to procure arms, engage with friendly foreign powers, issue passports and mint currency also seem to have motivated the RSF. But there is unlikely to be progress toward a functioning public administration any time soon. The army is targeting Nyala with airstrikes, and the city may prove impractical as a seat of government. Most RSF government officials flew in from outside the country for the swearing-in and are unlikely to stay long, meaning that the government will probably remain in exile. Negotiations to finalise the sixteen-member cabinet, 177-member assembly and 24-member regional council are likely to take place in Nairobi, Kenya's capital.
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Formation of the RSF's rival government deepens Sudan's fragmentation. Without a breakthrough soon in efforts to draw the war to a close - particularly U.S.-led negotiations that involve Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - Sudan risks shifting from all-out war to a protracted stalemate and de facto partition.
