The Executive Director of the Alliance for Finance Monitoring, Henry Muguzi, has warned that Uganda is likely to witness heightened levels of political violence and unchecked campaign spending in the upcoming elections, similar to or worse than those experienced in 2021.

Speaking during NBS Frontline on Thursday, Muguzi noted that opposition parties will face significant challenges in reaching voters, citing systemic barriers and a political environment that remains hostile to fair competition.

"The violence and spending will be the same as the 2021 elections or even more. I expect that the opposition will struggle to access the electorate," Muguzi said.

He further stressed that Uganda's democratic journey remains at an early and fragile stage, pointing to weaknesses in the way political parties govern their internal processes.

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"You will expect that there will be many independents because many aren't satisfied with their party internal processes," Muguzi added.

Muguzi predicted a rise in the number of independent candidates in the 2026 general elections, attributing this to widespread dissatisfaction with internal party structures and nomination processes.

His comments come at a time when disgruntled politicians from leading opposition parties have accused authorities of presiding over flawed nomination processes, riddled with favouritism and irregularities.

The debate underscores growing concerns from both analysts and political actors that Uganda's electoral landscape remains fraught with obstacles to credible competition, raising fears of intensified disputes as the country heads toward the 2026 polls.