The bulk of the SADC region is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall in most countries from October 2025 to March 2026.
This was revealed on Wednesday at the 31st Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sarcof-31) in Lusaka, Zambia.
This comes as preparations for the 2025/6 summer cropping season are underway, with the Government having set a cereal production target of 3, 207 million tonnes; 2,520 million tonnes maize and 687 000 tonnes traditional grains.
Follow us on WhatsApp | LinkedIn for the latest headlines
The Meteorological Services Department said the national rainfall forecast will be released this week.
The regional forecast is a culmination of dedicated efforts of the national climate experts appointed by SADC directors of Meteorological and Hydrological Services, with contributions of data from Global Producing Centres and regional partners.
According to the Sarcof forecast, the bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December (OND) 2025, except the western fringes of Namibia where below-normal rainfall is expected.
"The remainder of the region is likely to receive normal to below normal rainfall during this period of the 2025/26 season, including the island states of Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles.
"The period of January to March (JFM) 2026 is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall for most of the region except for the northern parts of the region (Angola, DRC and Tanzania) where normal to below normal rainfall is expected.
"Above normal rainfall is expected in the southwestern parts of the region, while the bulk of Madagascar, Mauritius and Seychelles are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall, with Comoros receiving normal to below normal rainfall during the JFM 2026 period.
Temperature outlook for the entire 2025/26 rainfall season indicates that temperatures are expected to be mostly above long-term averages over the whole of the SADC, except for the central parts of the region.
Meanwhile, farmers have started preparing for the summer cropping season, with most smallholders and communities concentrating on land preparations.
According to the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, Summer cropping plan, 3 207 000 tonnes of cereals are expected from the 2025/26 season. About 2,520 million tonnes of maize, 450 000 tonnes of sorghum, 220 000 tonnes of pearl millet,17 000 tonnes, finger millet, 2 000 tonnes rice and 128 250 tonnes of potatoes are expected.
This surpasses the food and feed requirements by 33 percent, above the policy target of 10 percent.
"The Agricultural and Rural Development Authority (ARDA) has been designated the "food, feed, seed and oils security agent for the nation with a target to produce 500 000 tonnes of summer cereals from 100 000 ha, and 300 000 tonnes of winter cereals from 60 000 ha," read the plan.
The plan is anchored on climate-proofed interventions at both household and national levels to produce surplus food and feed, while making progress towards the production of sufficient oils.
"The Summer Plan realises the importance of crowding in the private sector for funding for at least 40 percent of their annual raw material requirements from agriculture.
"This requires strong coordination, and strong monitoring and evaluation, from a whole Government and a whole sector approach.
"The summer cropping season will be funded through the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme, National Enhanced Agricultural Productivity Scheme (NEAPS,) private sector, while others will self-finance."
The distribution of inputs will target households that have carried out Pfumvudza/Intwasa pre-qualifying requirements, of potholing or ripping a minimum of three" plots each of 39 x 16m (0.0624ha), liming and organic matter placement and mulch collection for at least one plot.
For cotton, production will be through the Government-enabled COTCCO scheme and the private sector.
Zimbabwe Farmers union president, Dr Shadrek Makombe, said preparations were underway with the major activities being ploughing and soil testing, preparing fireguards and procurement of inputs.
"Farmers are busy preparing for the summer crop. Those with early planted wheat have started harvesting, depending on the stage of the crop. Those who do tobacco are busy planting or preparing to plant their irrigated crop.
Zimbabwe Indigenous Women Farmers Trust president, Mrs Depinah Nkomo, said A1 and communal farmers were busy potholing for the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme.
"Most A1 and communal farmers are preparing holes. Inputs will only be distributed to those who have completed the planting basins. Some commercial farmers are also preparing land using tractors. Farmers are optimistic of a good season," she said.
Agriculture expert, Mr Ivan Craig, said for Zimbabwe urged farmers to carry out soil tests to determine the nutrients and quantities their soils require.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
He said initial indications were that this year's season will be similar to the 2024/25 rainfall season.
"This is a better scenario whereby the first half of the season is going to be normal to below normal and the second half is going to be normal to above normal. With this kind of forecast, when establishing a crop, we do not need a lot of water. We use the first half of the season to establish our crop and then as we get into the latter part of the season, you find that our crops will be growing and they will be requiring more water or more moisture. As a result, you find that as the crop is halfway through its vegetative growth, it is now bigger, more vigorous, requires more moisture, and requires more nutrients, so that is the time the crops start flowering and start establishing fruits."
"If we get more water in the second half, there are certain crops which are recommended to be planted late in the season, like sugar beans, sunflowers and cowpeas.
"So the second part, being average to above average, goes well with the natural way of establishing crops. To me, it is a good forecast," he said.
