Nairobi — Seven in ten bank CEOs and other private sector leaders expect the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), along with new trade tariffs and policy shifts, to increase import costs and cut export volumes.

According to the Central Bank of Kenya's Market Perceptions Survey, respondents drawn from commercial banks, microfinance institutions, and non-bank private firms also warned of weaker consumer demand due to reduced disposable incomes and potential job losses.

"For instance, the hotel industry reported reduced business, with fewer conference bookings from NGOs and other donor-funded programs," the CBK noted.

AGOA, which allowed duty-free access for African goods into the U.S. for over two decades, has now expired, exposing Kenya's exports to new tariffs.

The Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) said Kenya exported $470 million worth of apparel to the U.S. last year, supporting more than 66,000 direct jobs.

In addition, the U.S. recently reintroduced a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on Kenyan imports under the "America First" trade framework.

KEPSA and Parliament have both urged Washington to renew AGOA for at least 16 years or grant a two-year transition window to negotiate a bilateral trade deal, citing the program's significant role in sustaining jobs and investment flows.