Addis Abeba — In the restless geography of the Horn of Africa, where ambition and fear dance in equal measure, Somalia once again occupies the center of a regional drama that stretches beyond its borders. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, once hailed as a reconciler and scholar-statesman, now walks through the corridors of diplomacy with the measured pace of a man aware that time is no longer his ally. His hair grays not only with age but also with the weight of unfulfilled promises and the exhaustion of governing a fragmented republic. The President, educated and eloquent, knows the theories of leadership well, yet the practice of power has humbled him. In his recent visits to Addis Abeba, Nairobi, and Abu Dhabi, there is a quiet fatigue that even courtesy cannot hide. It is the fatigue of a leader who senses the fading light of his tenure and, perhaps, in his silence, begins to send signals that he may not seek another term, preferring instead to leave behind a negotiated peace rather than a contested election.
His latest trip to Addis Abeba fits into this uncertain rhythm of diplomacy. Kenya and the United Arab Emirates had already invested months mediating between him and Jubaland's President Ahmed Madobe, but the long-awaited Kismayo talks collapsed into silence. The discussions, held under regional and international watch, could have allowed both sides a face-saving retreat. Instead, they hardened their mistrust. The meeting exposed not only the limits of negotiation but also the diminishing authority of Mogadishu. Puntland and Jubaland have already withdrawn from cooperation with the federal government of Somalia, and opposition factions in the capital now gather around the theme of leadership fatigue. The President's once confident tone now carries the gravity of weariness, and his gestures increasingly belong to a man aware that the season of ambition is passing.
Between Kenya's caution, Ethiopia's ambition
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Kenya's patience with Mogadishu has also thinned. For Nairobi, Jubaland is not merely a provincial entity but a defensive wall protecting its northern frontier and a corridor for economic continuity along the Indian Ocean. The region's security and governance are therefore matters of national interest. When Kenya's intelligence chief, Nuradin Haji, a veteran admired across the Horn, walked away from the failed Kismayo session, he did so as a man unwilling to gamble Kenya's security on Somali politics. President William Ruto's government now views Ahmed Madobe, President of Jubaland State of Somalia, as a stabilizing constant in a turbulent landscape, a partner who, whatever his flaws, delivers security cooperation. Somalia's President, once embraced as a brother, is now treated with polite caution. The age of easy trust is gone.
Ethiopia's stance is equally deliberate. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose political dexterity has become legend in the region, listens carefully but commits slowly. For him, Ahmed Madobe remains a necessary ally, not a subordinate. Jubaland's relative stability helps secure Ethiopia's eastern frontier and reduces the threat of Al-Shabaab infiltration. Abiy therefore approaches Hassan Sheikh's appeals with understanding but not conviction. The Ethiopian leader respects the Somali President's intellect but doubts his ability to command a divided federation. Ethiopia's priority is stability, not sentiment, and stability today lies with those who can control territory, not merely those who represent it in conferences.
At the same time, Ethiopia's grand national project rests on a broader ambition--the quest for energy sovereignty. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the expansion of renewable energy networks, and the pursuit of regional electricity interconnection are not simply economic endeavors but strategic pillars of autonomy. Energy sovereignty represents the backbone of Ethiopia's long-term regional influence, reducing dependency, enhancing leverage, and redefining power in the Horn. It is through this lens that Ethiopia assesses every diplomatic relationship, including its engagement with Somalia. A stable and cooperative Somalia would complement Ethiopia's energy vision, while a divided and unreliable neighbor threatens to disrupt trade routes and security corridors essential to that sovereignty. Abiy Ahmed's balancing act with Mogadishu, therefore, is not only political but also infrastructural and existential. He cannot afford a Somalia that undermines his energy ambitions, nor can he ignore a neighbor whose instability invites Cairo and Asmara to counter his designs.
Neither Cairo nor Asmara wishes Somalia to collapse entirely, but both prefer a Somalia that remains dependent, predictable, and pliable."
To the north, Cairo and Asmara observe the unfolding scene with studied calm. Egypt views Somalia's turbulence through the lens of its long contest with Ethiopia over the Nile. A weakened Somalia suits Cairo's geopolitical narrative. It keeps Ethiopia's southern flank distracted and offers Egypt diplomatic space in the Red Sea corridor. Eritrea's President Isaias Afwerki, equally strategic, believes that disorder elsewhere preserves his leverage. His government has quietly trained select Somali units and cultivated relations with factions estranged from Mogadishu. Neither Cairo nor Asmara wishes Somalia to collapse entirely, but both prefer a Somalia that remains dependent, predictable, and pliable. In their calculations, the weakness of Mogadishu is an asset that limits Ethiopia's reach and constrains its dream of full energy independence.
Somalia's President faces moment of reckoning
Amid this external intrigue, the internal picture remains bleak. President Hassan Sheikh's government is losing coherence. His educated mind grasps the complexities of governance, but his state machinery cannot translate insight into implementation. Ministries function without coordination, corruption corrodes the civil service, and local administrations act as sovereign entities. The President speaks often of reform, yet his voice echoes in empty institutions. Within Mogadishu, trust is scarce, and loyalty is transactional. His cabinet appears loyal only until opportunity beckons elsewhere. The federal model he once championed now fractures under the weight of competition and suspicion.
The President's best hope lies in reconciliation with his domestic rivals. If he could forge a genuine political deal with Ahmed Madobe and the Puntland leadership, he could transform his final months from retreat to redemption. Such an accord would require humility, patience, and a willingness to share credit, virtues that history rarely rewards but that leadership sometimes demands. A peace compact that binds Jubaland and Puntland back into federal cooperation could restore his moral authority and give his presidency a closing act of dignity. Yet those who know Somali politics doubt that such courage will prevail. Pride and proximity to power are dangerous counselors, and even an aging President may hesitate to surrender ambition entirely. The signal that he may step aside is whispered, not declared, and whether it becomes an act of statesmanship or a gesture lost in hesitation remains to be seen.
Beyond politics, the threat of Al-Shabaab looms as a relentless shadow. The group continues to expand its influence across regions where federal authority is absent. It collects taxes, adjudicates disputes, and enforces order where the state has withdrawn. For rural communities, its authority, however brutal, is predictable. The irony is bitter: a government recognized by the world governs by name, while the insurgents govern by presence. Every failed negotiation between Mogadishu and the regions, every public quarrel among leaders, becomes an unearned victory for Al-Shabaab. The militants exploit division more effectively than the government exploits unity.
The President's best hope lies in reconciliation with his domestic rivals."
Somalia's security vacuum invites not only terrorism but also foreign manipulation. The rivalry among Egypt, Eritrea, and Ethiopia now converges on Somali soil. Abiy Ahmed's desire to maintain access to the Red Sea meets Cairo's ambition to contain Ethiopia's regional rise. Eritrea's quiet maneuvering amplifies both tensions. In this triangle, Somalia's sovereignty becomes a diplomatic commodity traded through promises and alignments. The President's challenge is to navigate this storm without surrendering national dignity. To do so, he must anchor his diplomacy in domestic legitimacy. External support cannot compensate for internal disunity.
The Horn of Africa, in its present form, is a theater of shifting alignments. Ethiopia pursues development corridors, maritime aspirations, and energy sovereignty. Kenya secures its coastline and energy routes. Eritrea seeks to remain indispensable by playing mediator and spoiler in equal measure. Egypt extends its influence along the Red Sea, while the Gulf states invest in ports and political loyalty. In this crowded arena, Somalia risks becoming more an object of competition than a subject of sovereignty. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's frequent trips have not changed this reality. The world welcomes him with ceremony but withholds commitment. His voice still commands respect, but his authority commands little obedience.
As his administration nears its twilight, the President faces a moral and political choice. He can continue the cycle of confrontation and postponement, clinging to office in the hope of time's mercy, or he can initiate a national compact that reconciles federal and regional powers before the next election. The latter would allow him to retire as a statesman who placed country above self, the former as a politician who mistook persistence for purpose. His age, once a mark of experience, now appears as a mirror of a weary system. The nation needs renewal, and his legacy depends on whether he can accept that renewal may require his departure.
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Somalia's people, resilient and patient, watch all this with cautious optimism. Traders in Mogadishu's markets continue to build livelihoods from the ashes of conflict. Students in Garowe study governance even as their leaders quarrel. Elders in Kismayo whisper of peace as both memory and aspiration. They yearn for leadership that listens more than it lectures. They understand that Somalia's healing will not come from foreign capitals but from domestic compromise.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who received the Somali President in Addis Abeba recently, recognizes the fragility of the moment. He walks a thin rope between empathy and self-interest. Ethiopia's security depends on a functioning Somalia, yet its strategy depends on a cautious reading of its neighbor's instability. Abiy may offer counsel and cooperation, but he will not invest political capital where he sees only fatigue. The Somali President, once perceived as an equal player, is now viewed as a man nearing the limits of his influence.
Turning fatigue into foresight
Somalia today stands between survival and renewal. It has endured so much that collapse has lost its drama, yet it remains capable of surprising the world with resilience. The possibility of a political settlement with Jubaland and Puntland could alter its trajectory. If President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud were to set aside ambition and embrace reconciliation as his final act, he could leave a legacy of stability where others left chaos. It is a narrow path, but history often honors those who choose surrender of power over the pursuit of it. Whether he possesses that strength will define how the story of his presidency is remembered.
For now, all eyes remain on Somalia. The neighbors calculate, the allies whisper, and the enemies wait. The President travels, speaks, and negotiates, yet the true negotiation is with time itself. The chessboard of the Horn is crowded with kings who cannot checkmate and pawns who refuse to fall. In that quiet, uncertain game, Somalia's aging leader may yet find redemption if he can turn fatigue into foresight and leave not with applause but with respect. The world watches, not for his survival, but for his wisdom to end the game with grace. AS
Editor's Note: Mohamud Abdi Ahmed is a columnist, political and security analyst, and researcher at Greenlight Advisors Group, Somali Region of Ethiopia. He can be reached at [email protected]
