There has been a major escalation of the Cabo Delgado insurgency in the past month, with insurgent activity in 12 Cabo Delgado districts and a major push south into Memba in Nampula province. In September there was "a sharp rise" in attacks and the total number so far this year exceed 519, "the highest number since the conflict began", according to the European Commission’s Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations department (DG ECHO). All 17 districts in Cabo Delgado have been affected, it says. (ECHO Flash 1 & 13 October)
In the north there were attacks in Palma town on 9, 10 and 11 October and in Mocimboa da Praia town on 7 and 22 September and 7 October. In Mocimboa insurgents stopped and preached in a local mosque. Roads near both towns were blocked or attacked. Both districts are part of the natural gas zone and are supposedly protected.
The resurgence of attacks in Mocimboa da Praia is causing organisations who were helping to rebuild the town to flee, according to mayor Helena Bandeira. Many local officials, including Bandeira, have fled and only visit the town. But the district administrator, Sergio Cipriano, and some of his administration, have remained in the town. There is no government funding for reconstruction, so work is carried out or funded by the Rwandan security forces, United Nations agencies, TotalEnergies, or NGOs.
But the big move starting in late September was south into Memba district, Nampula, with insurgents crossing over the Lurio river and attacking on 30 September and 3 October. At least 51 houses, a church and a primary school were burned or destroyed in the towns of Lúrio and Chipene. Islamic State media claims 260 homes and 2 churches destroyed. On 9 October, the insurgents left Memba, crossing the Lurio river back into Chiúre district of Cabo Delgado
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Memba district administrator Manuel Cintura confirmed on 13 October that many people had fled or were afraid to sleep at home. He also acknowledged the presence of citizens from Memba “among the armed groups that have carried out attacks, considering the local population’s historical ties to fishing communities in areas previously occupied by insurgents in the neighbouring province of Cabo Delgado.”
In general there has been little response from Mozambican or Rwanda military forces. For example they only went to Mocimboa da Praia two days after the 9 October attack.
UN Migration estimates that between 22 September and 13 October, 72,321 people fled their homes in Cabo Delgado and 38,982 fled their homes in Memba, Nampula. (IOM UN Migration, Emergency Tracking Tool - Movement Alert 145 Mozambique: Cabo Delgado and Nampula attacks - 14 October 2025. Note that the text by district includes 40,000 additional displaced not on the map or in the headline https://dtm.iom.int/dtm_download_track/85546?file=1&type=node&id=57276)
Do insurgents have a "boardroom veto" on gas?
Insurgents have never attacked the Afungi gas compound, even though they could. When Palma was occupied, insurgents left contractor camps untouched (they were only looted later by Mozambican army and police).
But two recent attacks targeted gas workers at home, according to Zitamar (17 Oct). In Palma town on 9 October an employee of a company providing catering services to the construction industry was targeted.
An off-duty security guard, Santos Costa, was killed by insurgents on 14 October while on leave in his village on the border between Palma and Mocimboa da Praia districts. He worked for ISCO Segurança has been guarding the Mozambique LNG project since 2022. ISCO is majority-owned by Crystal Ventures, the holding party of Rwanda’s ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front, through its Mozambican investment arm Macefield Ventures Mozambique. ISCO Segurança is also 30%-owned by the family of influential Cabo Delgado businessman Yacub Osman.
The civil war was triggered by the complaint the local people gain nothing from the gas, rubies or minerals. Could it be that the insurgents see a share of the resource income as part of any settlement and do not want to jeopardise their own future income? They may see delaying the gas project as their most important weapon.
This led Engineering News (10 October) to ask if the insurgents were using the war and control of the security situation to have, in effect, a "veto at the boardroom table."
Both major gas consortia which will use the Afungi peninsula and stopped work after the Palma occupation have delayed restarting their installation of $40bn of liquification equipment. ExxonMobil’s chief executive Darren Woods met with President Daniel Chapo on the side-lines of the UN General Assembly in New York three weeks ago and again demanded security assurances. Exxon has already said it will not start restart work until a year after Total Energies starts work. Total’s chief executive Patrick Pouyanne told investors on 29 September that “everything is ready, in fact we are re-mobilising on the ground. The last piece of the decision is to officially lift force majeure," the declaration that work had stopped due an unforeseen external event. (Financial Times 30 Sept) This repeats earlier promises. But force majeure remains in effect, with no explanation. Press reports suggest security worries are one reason, but another is the Pouyanne is trying to squeeze more money out of Mozambique to cover the costs of the four year stoppage.
Without addressing root causes of the conflict, war could last for decades, says ISS
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The civil war in Cabo Delgado has been continuing for eight years, since insurgents first occupied Mocimboa da Praia on 5 October 2017. "The primary cause of failure in combatting the insurgency is the absence of a holistic strategy that addresses the root causes of the conflict. While supported by Islamic State, the Cabo Delgado insurgency is driven largely by local factors, including social, political and economic exclusion by the central government in Maputo," writes Institute for Security Studies consultant Borges Nhamirre in ISS Today (7 October)
"The causes of Cabo Delgado’s insurgency are complex and largely local, requiring a holistic approach that goes beyond military action," he writes. "If the country maintains its exclusively military approach, the insurgency could last for decades, like al-Shabaab and Boko Haram have in East and West Africa."
The well-informed Focus Group (Situation Report 211015-SEC001) said "The insurgency is spread across a wide geographic area. They have been conducting simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts". Security force responses "have had a limited impact. Consequently, the insurgency's widespread presence, combined with overt aggression, highlights an increasing brazenness posing a further challenge. … Their ability to sustain high operational intensity across such a large area likely points to a potentially sizeable number of active combatants in Northern Mozambique."
