The editor of this newsletter, Joseph Hanlon, is the keynote speaker at the OMR conference tomorrow (7 October) at 08.30 in Indy Village, Maputo. This is a summary of what I expect to say. There is a full text in English and Portuguese which can be downloaded.
The end of fascism in Portugal was called the "Carnation Revolution" because the government collapsed and not a shot was fired. Mozambique won independence, but 50 years later Mozambique is in crisis. Historic research shows that three things cause states to collapse. One is increasing inequality. The second is the concentration of political and economic power by a corrupt elite. And the third is lack of democracy. Fascist Portugal then and Mozambique today fit this pattern. Ordinary people feel marginalised and are restless. There is a civil war in Cabo Delgado. Is a "Jacaranda Revolution" inevitable here?
There are many failing states, and some, including Mozambique, were partially shaped by outside forces. The IMF and donors and global corporations set out to recolonise Mozambique. And they did it by forcing part of the Frelimo elite to become the new colonial administrators. The G7 group of seven western industrialised countries decided to impose what was called "shock therapy" on the former countries of the Soviet Union and on Mozambique. It included privatisation, free markets, and austerity and led to the creation of oligarchs. And in 2001 the World Bank's Operations Evaluation Department did a secret report on Mozambique which concluded that "After 14 years of reforms, the main objective of reducing poverty substantially through sustained private sector led growth, has not been achieved." This secret evaluation admits that for 14 years the World Bank was knowingly lying to Mozambique.
Recolonisation used compliant oligarchs to export Mozambique's resources, starting with the megaprojects. The next decade saw the Cabo Delgado resource boom, with natural gas, rubies, graphite and other resources. Oligarchs and their families gained land for exploration and then sold most to foreign mining companies to actually exploit the mines. Tens of thousands of families were pushed off land. Young people were angry, and in 2017 the civil war began. President Nyusi refused to talk to "terrorists" and did not hear their message - that they only wanted jobs.
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Even the donors heard the message. The World Bank and European Union offered a $2 billion dollar development programme for Cabo Delgado, if the government admitted that there were internal causes of the war. President Nyusi refused.
Discontent grew and Frelimo knew it could not win a fair elections. Municipal elections in 2023 were fraudulent. I saw the official documents and know Venâncio Mondlane was elected Maputo president, but Frelimo said he lost. The 2024 elections were so manipulated that no one knows who won. Young demonstrators across the country demanded "electoral truth" and then jobs and a future; 350 demonstrators were shot and killed by police.
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What happens now? If the crisis worsens will the oligarchs flee and let the government collapse? Or could the Frelimo elite listen to its children and grandchildren and return to the goals of 50 years ago, and try again to build a nation that benefits everyone.
