Every election season, Uganda's capital city transforms into a political battleground, as rival parties fight for dominance in each of its five divisions. Yet, despite repeated efforts by the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to make inroads, Kampala's political direction has remained largely unchanged for the past twenty-three years.
Political analysts say that to understand this enduring trend, one must revisit the legal reforms that reshaped city politics--particularly the amendment that allowed for the direct election of mayors.
Before that change, mayors were chosen by council members, a process that often favored the ruling establishment. But once citizens began voting directly, the city's political tide turned.
"Nasser Ssebagala was the first mayor elected by popular vote, then came Ssebaana Kizito, Ssebagala again, and now Erias Lukwago," explains lawyer and political commentator John Paul Kakande, who has tracked Kampala's political evolution since the early 2000s.
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According to Kakande and former Deputy Mayor Nasiibi Takuba Kabuye, the introduction of direct elections entrenched Kampala's reputation as an opposition bastion.
"Since the system changed, Kampala voters first consider party affiliation before casting their vote. DP was the first opposition party to dominate Kampala," says Kakande.
Takuba adds that city voters rarely make choices based solely on individual appeal. "The voters first look out for what their party stands for," he notes, emphasizing that party identity has become central to Kampala's political behavior.
Analysts say another defining feature of Kampala's voting pattern is its preference for leaders who seem to understand and share the people's everyday struggles.
"Kampala is the centre of national politics, so leaders who speak about change--which most of the people yearn for--are easily elected," observes Takuba.
This dynamic has consistently worked to the advantage of opposition candidates, who often campaign on platforms of reform, accountability, and inclusivity.
Their message resonates with a largely youthful, urban electorate frustrated by unemployment, poor service delivery, and the rising cost of living.
Meanwhile, NRM candidates--despite access to resources and state machinery--struggle to connect with urban voters who perceive them as detached from the realities of city life.
The numbers paint a clear picture. "Of the ten elective positions in Kampala, the National Unity Platform (NUP) holds nine at the parliamentary level. When it comes to division mayors, NRM only controls Kampala Central," Kakande points out.
That imbalance was also evident during the 2021 presidential election, when Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (Bobi Wine) of NUP defeated President Yoweri Museveni in Kampala by a margin of over 28,000 votes.
These results underline a trend that has held steady since the era of the Democratic Party (DP), which first established opposition dominance in the city. Kampala's residents--many of whom are urban workers, traders, and youth--have consistently rallied behind candidates who promise systemic change.
Even during periods when the ruling party appeared to gain traction, such as during the early years of the Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) reforms, the city's voting outcomes have remained stubbornly resistant to NRM advances.
The Road Ahead
As Uganda gears up for another election season, early signs suggest that the opposition's grip on Kampala may continue for the foreseeable future. Campaign activities in Rubaga, Makindye, Kawempe, Nakawa, and Central divisions are already intensifying, with NUP and other opposition groups working to consolidate their base.
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Political watchers argue that the city's entrenched opposition culture will be difficult to reverse unless the ruling party addresses the underlying frustrations of urban voters.
"Kampala's politics reflect a deeper struggle about inclusion, opportunity, and representation," says Kakande. "Until those issues are addressed, no amount of mobilization will change the city's political DNA."
As the campaign momentum builds, the capital once again stands as the symbolic center of Uganda's democracy--a place where voices of dissent have not only endured but defined the course of its political narrative.
