Namibia is grappling with major decisions that will shape the country's direction for generations to come: whether to deepen investment in the oil and gas industry or accelerate the transition toward green hydrogen and renewable energy.
These choices are not merely economic, they will determine the sustainability of our environment, the structure of our economy, and the inclusivity of our society for decades.
At the centre of these decisions is a fundamental question: how well are we using research to guide public policy, and whose research do we rely on?
When Namibia is faced with decisions that will define its economic future, independent, diversified research voices are crucial.
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When a research institution is perceived as being politically intertwined, its ability to produce fearless, evidence-driven analysis becomes limited.
The country urgently needs to strengthen its research landscape by supporting autonomous, multidisciplinary institutions, whether linked to universities, civil society, or the private sector, that can provide alternative evidence and critical oversight.
Tough choices
Namibia is witnessing unprecedented attention from both fossil fuel and renewable energy investors.
Offshore oil discoveries in the Orange Basin and discussions around developing a local oil refinery have rekindled the promise of energy independence and revenue generation.
Simultaneously, the government's green hydrogen ambitions are gaining momentum, positioning the country as a potential leader in Africa's renewable energy transition.
The Hyphen Hydrogen Energy Project, valued at approximately N$190 billion, is projected to produce 300 000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, creating new export markets and infrastructure opportunities.
The broader green hydrogen sector has already attracted N$2.08 billion in investment, generated over 800 jobs, and channelled roughly N$170 million into local small and medium enterprises.
While these achievements are notable, questions persist: who ultimately benefits from these projects?
How transparent are the processes behind them? And, importantly, how many sustainable jobs, particularly for the youth, will they create?
CRISIS OF HOPE
Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high, with recent estimates from the Namibia Statistics Agency placing it at around 40%.
This is not merely a statistic, it reflects a national crisis of opportunity and hope.
Each investment Namibia makes needs to place job creation for young people at its very core.
When public funds and tax revenue are committed to large-scale projects, youth employment must be among the primary metrics of success.
It is not enough to build infrastructure or attract foreign capital; every initiative must be measured by its ability to empower Namibian youth through decent work, technical training and entrepreneurial participation.
Sustainable development is not achieved by profit margins alone, but by building the human capacity that will sustain our industries long after global trends shift.
Sound research is not optional, it is the backbone of responsible governance.
Without independent, transparent and rigorous research, Namibia risks misallocating scarce resources or locking itself into industries that may not align with future global realities.
Oil, for instance, may yield short-term financial gains but carries environmental and geopolitical risks as the world aims to transition away from fossil fuels.
Green hydrogen, while promising, requires immense capital, expertise, and ongoing oversight to ensure benefits reach the broader population and not only elite or foreign investors.
BUILDING CAPACITY
The credibility of public policy depends on the credibility of the data that informs it. Research must be open to scrutiny, peer-reviewed, and free of political interference.
Transparency in environmental and social impact assessments, disclosure of project partners and funding sources, and open public access to non-sensitive data are all essential to building trust and accountability.
For Namibia to make informed, inclusive decisions, it must invest meaningfully in research and development.
National spending on research remains well below international benchmarks, typically 0.5% to 1% of gross domestic product for middle-income countries.
Increased investment would allow more Namibian universities, independent think-tanks and civil society organisations to undertake policy studies, economic modelling, and environmental assessments that complement government research.
Simultaneously, existing institutions should enhance their transparency and diversify their funding sources.
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By publishing methodologies, disclosing potential conflicts of interest, and inviting peer review, these institutions can strengthen their credibility and public trust.
Inclusive growth
Namibia's future cannot be built on assumption or ambition alone.
Youth unemployment must become a defining criterion of every investment decision.
Every Namibian has a stake in these choices.
Every dollar spent should be judged not just by how much it earns, but by how much it empowers.
The strength of a nation lies not only in its natural resources but in the potential of its people, especially its youth, to turn knowledge, skill and opportunity into shared prosperity.
If Namibia commits to strengthening independent research and placing youth employment at the heart of development, it will not only choose wisely on oil and hydrogen, it will choose a future built on evidence, inclusion and sustainability.
- Gideon Kapuka is a researcher, writer and business consultant; gideonkapuka5@gmail.com
The Namibian uses AI tools to assist with improved quality, accuracy and efficiency, while maintaining editorial oversight and journalistic integrity.
