Sudan: Findings Shed Light On Sudanese Citizens' Pre-War Views On Governance, Elections, Military

2 December 2025
Afrobarometer (Accra)
By Zuhayr Mustun

Most saw elections as the best way to choose their leaders, but few trusted the National Elections Commission.

Key findings

  • Sudanese citizens' top priority for government action was management of the economy (cited by 62% of respondents), followed by health/sickness (38%) and education (31%).
  • One-fourth (25%) highlighted crime and security, while about half as many identified corruption (13%) and political instability and ethnic tensions (11%) as urgent priorities.
  • Half (50%) of respondents thought it was "fairly likely" or "very likely" that the transitional government would successfully establish civilian rule, though almost as many (47%) saw it as unlikely.
  • Majorities doubted that the military government would reduce income inequality (71%), prosecute those involved in killing protesters (69%), tackle corruption (66%), improve the economy (61%), or restore peace (55%).
  • Majorities of Sudanese rejected one-party rule (70%) and dictatorship (57%), while half (50%) opposed military rule.
  • More than three-fourths (77%) of citizens saw elections as the best way to choose their leaders.
  • But only one in four (26%) said they trust the National Elections Commission "somewhat" or "a lot."
  • Support for a multiparty system dropped to below half (38%) of adults in 2022; a majority (55%) of citizens said multiple political parties create division and confusion.
  • More than eight in 10 (82%) said political-party competition "often" or "always" leads to violent conflict.
  • Only 11% said they feel close to a political party, down from 41% in 2013.
  • More than half (53%) of citizens said they trust the SAF.
  • While 58% said the country's military may take control of government when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends, 39% disagreed.
  • Two-thirds (66%) of Sudanese "agreed" or "strongly agreed" that the country can only develop if leaders are held accountable for their past crimes.

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Sudan is in its third year of a conflict that has killed 150,000 people and displaced 12 million (Al Jazeera, 2025). At least 30 million citizens need humanitarian assistance, including 25 million who face acute food insecurity, while 12.2 million women are at risk of gender-based violence and 17 million children are out of school (Islamic Relief Worldwide, 2025).

International media outlets and pressure groups frequently describe the war as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fatteh al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (widely known as Hemedti) (Booty, Chothia, & Chibelushi, 2025; Center for Preventive Action, 2025). In the wake of widespread popular demonstrations, the SAF joined forces with the RSF to overthrow autocratic President Omar al-Bashir in December 2019. An interim government comprising military leaders and civilian representatives was set up to lead Sudan to civilian rule, with al-Burhan as president and Hemedti as his deputy. In 2021, al-Burhan removed all but one of the non-military members of the Transitional Sovereignty Council. Following disagreements regarding the transition to civilian rule and the incorporation of the RSF into the army, Hemedti launched an insurgency in April 2023 (Willis & Berridge, 2025).

Prior to the war, Sudan was already battling multiple socioeconomic and developmental challenges. A low-income country with a gross national income per capita of U.S. $650 in 2021, it had experienced years of political instability, internal conflicts, and external shocks that prevented structural reforms and hampered inclusive growth (African Development Bank, 2024).

This dispatch reports key findings from the Afrobarometer Round 9 survey, conducted in December 2022, after the military coup but before the outbreak of the civil war. The paper sheds light on Sudanese views on governance and the military regime.

At least half of citizens disapproved of one-party rule, one-person rule, and military rule. More than three-quarters favoured choosing their leaders via elections. Yet more than half of citizens were willing to tolerate the army taking over the government in the event that elected leaders abuse their power.

Half of respondents thought it likely that the transitional government would succeed in establishing civilian rule, though almost as many were sceptical.

Zuhayr Mustun Zuhayr Mustun is a researcher at StraConsult Ltd.

Read the original article on Afrobarometer.

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