Kenya: TIFA Poll - Opposition Unity Remains Elusive As Jubilee Popularity Surges

Nairobi — The opposition landscape is shifting dramatically as the Jubilee Party gains momentum, driven by a high-profile alliance between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi, according to a new TIFA National Survey.

The survey reveals that Jubilee's support has surged nearly threefold since August, climbing from 3% to 11%, marking it as one of the key beneficiaries of the political realignment following the death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga.

Jubilee's resurgence is closely tied to Kenyatta's public backing of Fred Matiangi, who was recently appointed Jubilee's Deputy Party Leader in preparation for the 2027 elections.

The partnership is credited with energizing the party's base and appealing to voters who are re-evaluating their political loyalties amid the evolving opposition landscape.

Despite this, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) continues to command the largest share of public support at 20%, followed by President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16%.

The survey also highlights a growing proportion of Kenyans who identify as undecided or without any party preference, reflecting a volatile and fluid electorate.

Opposition Unity

While individual opposition parties, including Jubilee, are gaining traction, the idea of a single, united front against President Ruto faces widespread skepticism. Only 38% of respondents believe it is likely that opposition leaders will consolidate behind one candidate in 2027.

Supporters of the Kenya Kwanza government are particularly doubtful, with just 33% expecting unity, compared to 45% among those opposed to the current administration.

The survey suggests that voters are no longer persuaded by rhetoric alone; political alliances will only resonate if formalized and visible to the public.

TIFA researchers noted that expectations about opposition unity often reflect partisan wishful thinking. Citizens hoping for a government defeat are more likely to believe in a united opposition, while those aligned with the current administration remain skeptical.

"The opposition is gaining momentum, but translating popularity into a credible, unified front remains the key challenge," the report notes.

Read the original article on Capital FM.